Betting Guide for UFC 291 with Latest Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Justin Gaethje is the fighter who lands the most significant strikes in the entire lightweight division (7.38 per minute), while Dustin Poirier is third on that list (6.18).

This explains why Dana White has given them a chance to fight for the “BMF,” a.k.a. “bad motherfu**er” title in the UFC 291 main event.

The headliner fight looks exciting enough to make everyone obsess with the July 29 event, but that’s only the tip of the iceberg. We’re also going to see Alex Pereira make his UFC Light Heavyweight debut, while there are questions about Tony Ferguson’s retirement.

If you’re still not convinced that the event in Salt Lake City is going to be a banger, you should also know that the UFC 291 odds are amazing.

Whether you like backing favorites or underdogs, the top sports betting sites will give you great value for all of the UFC 291 fights.

It’s been a while since the betting odds were so good in the UFC. The ones you see above are from BetUS, but they don’t differ much if you take them from any other leading betting site – BetOnline, MyBookie, Everygame, etc.

The UFC 291 betting odds for the main event are very close, as you would expect from a fight for the “BMF” title. Still, it’s the co-main event where they’re almost identical – Blachowicz and Pereira both come with minus-money odds.

Green is given -420 UFC 291 odds, making him the biggest fight card favorite. You’d need to bet $420 on him for a chance to win $100, which isn’t a great deal.

Actually – as you’ll learn later in this UFC 291 preview – I think doing just the opposite would be the smart thing to do. But before I explain why “El Cucuy” might be a good bet, I need to analyze the biggest fight of the evening – Poirier vs. Gaethje 2.

Before I dive into that, make sure to place your UFC 291 best bets at BetUS.

I think it’s really a coin toss when it comes to who’s going to win this fight. The UFC 291 odds are (slightly) in favor of Gaethje, mainly because he’s already shown he knows how to beat Gaethje. He defeated him by a technical knockout in 2018.

But this only means that Gaethje has even more motivation to go all-in on Saturday. This guy is already famous for being tough as nails with a chin of concrete.

He gets hit 7.66 times per minute, which is one of the worst numbers in the UFC, but “The Highlight” doesn’t seem to mind. He just keeps going.

Literally, anything can happen in this fight. Poirier might knock Gaethje out, but the reverse can also easily happen. Plus, we could see Gaethje finally start using his wrestling skills more, take the fight to the ground, and record his first submission win since 2012.

Whatever happens, one thing is certain. Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 is going to be worthy of a “BMF” fight. In fact, I think it’s very likely that this duel will win the Fight of the Night accolade.

That’s something you might be able to bet on at BetOnline, which usually releases its UFC props odds a day or two before the event.

In the meantime, you can back Justin Gaethje at this online sportsbook as it’s giving the +138 UFC 291 odds on “The Highlight” winning.

Alex Pereira is moving up to the UFC Light Heavyweight division this weekend, where he will fight Jan Blachowicz, who is natural at 205 pounds.

UFC 291 betting odds suggest this will be a very close fight in which Pereira stands a decent chance of winning. This is because he’s one of the best kickboxers on Earth.

Still, I doubt he can beat the Big Pole by KO/TKO. After all, that’s something only Thiago Santos has done in the UFC. And Santos is way more powerful than Pereira. Instead, I suspect Blachowicz might do that to him, especially if the fight goes to the ground.

Power that is Legendary! 😤

🇵🇱@JanBlachowicz resumes his quest to reclaim the LHW gold this weekend!

📺📱💻 #UFC291 | 𝐁𝐋𝐀𝐂𝐇𝐎𝐖𝐈𝐂𝐙 𝐯𝐬 𝐏𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐈𝐑𝐀 | JUL 30 pic.twitter.com/txu0AUqAvl

— UFC_Asia (@UFC_Asia) July 25, 2023

The next stop is the Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland fight, in which I can see “Trailblazer” winning easily. He’s a jack of all trades, while Chiesa is all about wrestling/grappling with very poor striking. Holland just needs to keep him at a distance, and he’s going to win.

Then we move to my favorite underdog bet of the event. Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson is given the UFC 291 odds of +355 because of his 5-fight losing streak.

It sounds bad, but there’s a caveat – he lost to fighters who are way above his next opponent.

My favorite UFC 291 bet is Kevin Holland in the main card opener. I also like Jan Blachowicz in the co-main event and Stephen Thompson in the feature fight. Their UFC 291 odds are very good, considering how good fighters these guys are. 

History teaches us that big upsets happen in big events such as UFC 291. I can see at least two upsets on the main card – Justin Gaethje and Tony Ferguson.

Despite his losing streak, Ferguson has stated he’ll retire when he’s ready.

When it comes to the preliminary fights, we should see most of the favorites win, with Marcos Rogerio de Lima being the only one I’d stay away from.

It’s not that he’s not a good fighter; it’s just that his opponent has the nuclear option in his fists.

One final piece of advice I have for you regarding UFC 291 is to watch the event via UFC Fight Pass and, if needed, do some live betting. This goes especially for the main and co-main event.

For instance, if Blachowicz takes the fight to the ground, it means it’s time to back the Polish fighter. I honestly doubt Pereira has the grappling skills necessary to escape from such a situation.

In the Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 fight, it’s all about who’s the tougher fighter. I suspect this will be a marathon fight, so watch closely to see which of the two is more likely to gas out.

Want more action to close out July? Feel free to check out my Bellator x Rizin 2 betting guide. If you need a little more help, our MMA betting guide takes a dive into useful strategies and expert betting advice.

Footnotes:

• Fighter statistics was taken from UFCStats.
• Event info courtesy of the official UFC site.