UFC 311 Odds & Betting Picks

UFC 311 odds are out, so you can start betting on your favorite fighters in the organization’s first PPV event of 2025. But which bets should you make?

Should you back Arman Tsarukyan to dethrone Islam Makhachev? Or maybe bet that Merab Dvalishvili will beat a member of the Nurmagomedov MMA family?

My advice for you is to go through this UFC 311 preview to learn more about those and other fights scheduled for January 18. Along the way, I’ll highlight my favorite UFC 311 picks and point you to the best site to bet on this big event.

Current Odds for UFC 311

This is a huge event, which is why all top-rated UFC betting sites have already published their UFC 311 betting odds. Prices differ from one sportsbook to another, but for the bets I’m planning to make, BetOnline is the perfect choice.

BetOnline has odds for all 14 announced UFC 311 fights, meaning that there’s something for everyone. If you’re the type of bettor who likes backing favorites, you’re going to love Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 odds.

If you like just the opposite, take a look at the co-main event, where Merab’s odds look tasty. And if you like something in-between, fights like Prochazka vs. Hill and Holland vs. de Ridder are the ones you should focus on.

Don’t have a favorite sportsbook and/or haven’t tried BetOnline? You can read this quick breakdown detailing why it’s a great site for betting on UFC 311, or check out our review of the site via the link below.

UFC 311 Main Event Betting Preview: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Islam Makhachev is a -405 favorite to beat Arman Tsarukyan in the UFC 311 main event. I can think of three reasons why that is the case, starting with the fact that he’s the defending UFC Lightweight champ who’s been in possession of the title since 2022.

Not only is he the king of the 155lb division, but he’s also No. 1 in the UFC Men’s Pound-for-Pound Rankings. Tsarukyan, on the other hand, isn’t even in the Top 15.

The final reason why Makhachev’s UFC 311 odds are so short is that he’s already defeated Tsarukyan once. This happened in 2019 when we saw a wrestling battle in Russia’s second-largest city, St. Petersburg.

The fight lasted for 15 minutes and Makhachev won thanks to four takedowns that he landed. What’s interesting is that Tsarukyan landed one TD himself – it was the first time that someone took Makhachev down in the UFC.

But it was long before Makhachev became the champ. Since then, his skills have improved significantly, and I’m not just talking about wrestling. This guy has turned into an elite striker, who even became the first person ever to beat Alexander Volkanovski by a KO.

I think it’s very likely the same will happen in the UFC 311 headliner.

Best Bets for UFC 311

I’ve already explained why Makhachev is likely to win on January 18, now it’s time to present you with two other top UFC 311 picks. The first of those is Jiri Prochazka who I think will destroy Jamahal Hill.

Prochazka’s record since coming to the UFC is 4-2, with both of those losses happening to Alex Pereira. He might not be as good as Poatan, but I think he’s the best of the rest.

I also think Kevin Holland will beat Reinier de Ridder. Although I’m a fan of the Dutch fighter, I realize that he’s a grappling-focused martial artist, who doesn’t do well against prolific strikers like Holland.

Top UFC 311 Upset Picks

Merab Dvalishvili is the defending champion of the UFC Bantamweight division who’s got nothing but wins since 2018. He’s defeated the who’s who of the 135lb division, including Sean O’Malley, Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, and others.

Umar Nurmagomedov doesn’t have such a portfolio, but he’s a member of the Nurmagomedov clan, which is why he’s seen as the favorite in the UFC 311 co-main event. Another reason is that he’s got a 100% record in MMA, but the toughest opponent he’s fought so far was Cory Sandhagen, whom he beat by decision in Abu Dhabi.

This time around, the fight is in America and his opponent is super-motivated to defend the title. Priced at +275, Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili is one of my top picks for January 18.

I also like the chances of Raoni Barcelos against Payton Talbott. Sure, Talbott is a fun fighter with a great perspective, but Barcelos has experience on his side. I’m not 100% sure he’s going to win, but if he does, I won’t be surprised at all.

Full UFC 311 Fight Card Predictions

It’s been a while since we last saw a major upset happen in a UFC PPV event. Actually, we only saw two underdogs win in the 14 fights of UFC 310.  

I’m pretty confident no big surprises will happen on January 18 either. I do suspect we might see a betting upset in the co-main event.

For most other fights, I think oddsmakers have done a fairly good job. Top favorites will probably beat major underdogs, which is why it would be smart to combine several such bets into a parlay – Islam Makhachev, Jailton Almeida, Grant Dawson, etc.

Betting on UFC 311

I think Islam Makhachev is the best fighter in the UFC right now, so he should have no problems dealing with Arman Tsarukyan (again).

If his UFC odds of -405 are too short for you, I recommend backing Jiri Prochazka as well. I think he’s a very, very good fighter who will steamroll Jamahal Hill on January 18. And if you feel adventurous, why not put a few bucks on Merab Dvalishvili?

Whichever bet you wish to make, my advice is to do it at BetOnline, which is one of the best offshore sportsbooks for betting on martial arts.