Next Canada Prime Minister Odds & Election Pick

Betting on the next prime minister of Canada is getting more frantic as we inch closer to the 2025 Canadian election. Sportsbooks are seeing big fluctuations in their politics odds due to Justin Trudeau’s decision to quit as prime minister in January.

The Liberal leader’s exit means Canada will get a new PM before October’s election. His successor will have seven months to prove themselves worthy of serving as Canada’s next prime minister over the next four years.

Read on for tips on betting on Canadian politics in 2025!

Odds to be Canada’s next prime minister

2025 began with the ruling Liberal party seeking a new leader – and therefore new prime minister. Justin Trudeau’s decision to quit in the year of the next Canadian election means the Canadian parliament is suspended until March, when his successor will be announced.

BetOnline is the top Canadian sportsbook offering odds on two Liberal party candidates running for the job. Mark Carney is an economist who has served as governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. His economic expertise makes him a prime candidate for the job, as Canada braces itself for Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

Carney has already laughed off the suggestion that Canada becomes the 51st state.

Chrystia Freeland is Carney’s only proper rival for the leadership contest. She has served as deputy prime minister under Trudeau for years and is well established in the Liberal party. Freeland has a lot of support but the current national polls suggest voters don’t want to see a Trudeau ally take the job.

Best politics betting site for next Canadian prime minister

BetOnline prices Carney at -2500 to secure the job as Canada’s next prime minister. A Leger poll in January 2025 suggested Carney has 57% support, while Freeland is on 17%. The only other declared candidate who got any sort of backing was Karina Gould, on 4%.

BetOnline is hot on political betting and has withdrawn its odds on Christy Clark, Dominic LeBlanc, and other longshot candidates. None of them have a chance of beating either Carney or Freeland to the job, meaning the sportsbook has the most accurate prices to date on this leadership race.

Why is Mark Carney the favorite to become Canada’s next prime minister?

BetOnline’s odds on the next Canadian prime minister suggest Carney has a 96.2% chance of getting the job. He might not win the Canadian election in the fall, but he almost certainly will lead the Liberals over the next few months.

The odds shifted in Carney’s favor as soon as he said he was interested in running. Carney is not a frontline politician and so isn’t attached to the Trudeau administration in the same way Freeman is.

Famous for his economic mind, Carney is entering politics at the precise moment Canadian voters are worried about their home finances.

Canadian election odds 2025

While the Liberal party figures out its next leader, Canada’s other parties are preparing for October’s federal election. The 2025 Canadian election could have a huge impact on Canada’s future and its relationship with the United States.

The center-right Conservative party leads in the polls, but the betting odds still give the Liberals a fighting chance of retaining power.

Remember, the Liberals have been in government since Trudeau led them to victory in 2015. Sportsbooks sense a change on the horizon. 

What will the party of the next Canadian prime minister be?

Canadians will vote for their preferred party to lead the country at October’s federal election. The winning party will form a majority in Canada’s parliament, and their leader will become the next Canadian prime minister.

Betting on the next Canadian PM therefore requires bettors to look at which party will win the election.

Right now the odds suggest the Conservatives will win. BetOnline’s price of -500 carries an 83.3% probability. To put this into context, sportsbooks gave Donald Trump a 60% chance of winning the 2024 US election (-150), so the Conservatives clearly have an advantage here.

However, changes in the recent betting odds suggest the Conservatives won’t just moonwalk to victory in 2025. In fact, the latest poll trends suggest this could be a very close election.

Below, we look at which party could win the 2025 Canadian election and, in turn, deliver the next prime minister.

Conservatives

The Conservatives began to lead the 2025 federal election polls way back in 2022 – a year after Trudeau won another election victory. The rising cost of groceries, gas, and housing bills have hit Canadians hard.

Pierre Poilievre took over the party leadership in October 2022, just as the polls were cranking up. He is a conservative populist – not quite as brash as Trump but certainly from the populist mould. His straight-talking rhetoric has won a lot of support.

But the polls reached a high point last year and are starting to fall. The possibility of Carney leading the Liberals means scrutiny is back on Poilievre and his party. Are they a better option than a former Bank of Canada governor?

Liberals

The Liberals have been attached to Trudeau for too long. His relationship with Trump meant he was never going to win the 2025 Canadian election, so it was better for the party for him to quit now.

If Freeman gets the job then it’s hard to see how the government stays in power this fall. If Carney gets it then the game is alive again.

BetOnline’s odds on the Liberals to win the Canadian election have already fallen from +600 to +300. Yes, they’re still behind the Conservatives – but Carney’s candidacy this winter saw their poll numbers rise from 19% to 32% in two weeks. Perhaps Carney can turn their fortunes around.

New Democratic or Bloc Québécois

The New Democrats are seen as Canada’s “third” party but haven’t seriously set their sights on government since 2011, when they won 103 seats. Jagmeet Singh is a competent leader but merely needs to improve on the 25 seats won at the last election to view 2025 as a successful year.

The same goes for the Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet, whose party champions Québécois sovereignty. They’ve won 32 seats at the last two elections. All of them, unsurprisingly, were in Québéc.

There’s a ceiling that Bloc Québécois can reach in Canada’s parliament, so they are never realistically going to “win” an election and secure Blanchet the role of prime minister.

BetOnline price both outside parties at +6500 to win this election.

Canada prime minister contenders at 2025 election

Now we know a little more about the parties running in the 2025 Canadian election, let’s focus more on those who want to become prime minister. Remember, Canadians vote for their preferred party, not the individual candidate, in their federal election.

Pierre Poilievre

Poilievre has had it easy so far. The Liberal decline under Trudeau over the past few years means voters have naturally swung to the right. The Conservatives don’t necessarily need to be as populist in their rhetoric as Poilievre is, but it’s worked so far.

Poilievre is in a great position to be Canada’s prime minister after the October election. His party leads in the polls and there is an appetite for change across the country. Trump’s ascension to the White House helps as well, with Poilievre pushing a similar-sounding “Canada First” rhetoric.

However, he needs to be careful of the rising support of the Liberals if, as expected, Carney becomes the short-term prime minister. This could have a big impact on the odds.

Mark Carney

We can probably assume that Carney will lead the Liberals into the next election. His pitch will all be about the economy. He knows Canada’s economy inside out and is well placed to tackle a trade war with the United States.

Carney aims to help Canadians feel economically safe. It’s what Trudeau has failed to achieve over this parliament, and why his party’s poll numbers have fallen flat.

Now they’re on the rise with the eager expectation that Carney can turn the Liberals’ fortunes around. Poilievre should be concerned. His poll lead is now within the margin of error and Carney isn’t even in the job yet.

Chrystia Freeland

Freeland has an outside shot of being prime minister of Canada after the next election. Her road to power is a long one, though. She first needs to beat Carney to the Liberal party leadership this spring. BetOnline think she has an 11.1% chance of doing that.

Then she’d need to make the Liberals electorally viable. That would be difficult as her recent career is so firmly attached to Trudeau. She may end up suffering the same fate as Kamala Harris in the US – her pitch for the presidency was overshadowed by her work with Joe Biden.

A lot of stars need to align for Freeland to deliver electoral victory for the Liberals this fall.

Jagmeet Singh

Jagmeet Singh is not going to be Canada’s next prime minister. However, bettors shouldn’t look away from the New Democratic leader. It’s very possible that neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals win a majority at the 2025 election. The parties probably won’t do business with Bloc Québécois, meaning Singh could act as king maker to form a coalition government.

In doing so, Singh could easily pitch to be the deputy prime minister. The New Democrats would be in power (albeit in a coalition) and wield its influence. Perhaps one day Singh will be prime minister – although that day won’t be in 2025.

Canada Next Prime Minister Prediction

Our top pick for the next Canadian prime minister after the 2025 election is:

Carney is an outside shot but many of the cards are in his favor. He is likely to be prime minister after Trudeau for a seven-month period this year. That will give him time to establish his agenda and change public perception for the Liberal party.

The polls have already moved following the news Carney was interested in succeeding Trudeau. The Liberals were 20 points behind the Conservatives but are now within the margin of error.

Carney, if he becomes PM this March, will have half a year to prove himself to the Canadian people.

Many voters don’t want to back the Liberals because they’re tired of Trudeau. They would be willing to come back to the party with a new leader in charge.

Carney’s rival – the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre – has already lost support since Trudeau’s resignation. There’s a feeling Poilievre is too close to Trump’s style of politics to deliver effectively for Canada. Carney already seems like the safer pair of hands in a time of difficult economic times across the country.