Odds & Predictions for the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline – Will Shohei Ohtani Get Dealt?

It’s trade season for the MLB, and they will be coming in hot in the next few weeks. Star players from around the league will be shipped to new teams as they try and gear up for a run at the World Series.

The trade deadline can make or break you, so it will be interesting to see what kind of deals are made. There are some tantalizing names on the trade block, so we could be in for one of the most entertaining deadlines ever.

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I’ll be going over my own 2023 MLB trade predictions, so let’s dive in!

The question everyone will be wondering at this year’s trade deadline is, will Shohei Ohtani get traded? Sure, he’s great for coming up with some funny fantasy baseball team names, but he’s also the best player in baseball.

Ohtani has become a worldwide superstar after his heroic efforts in the World Baseball Classic, and he’s continued his stellar play with the Angels as well.

He continues to amaze us every game, whether it’s hitting, pitching, running, or anything in between. It’s hard to argue if there’s ever been another player in MLB history who has been better at their peak than Ohtani.

He is the current MLB leader in home runs with 33 and has a 3.50 ERA on the mound. The 29-year-old is the frontrunner for AL MVP, but unfortunately, the Angels are 46-48.

With Ohtani becoming a free agent at the end of the season, they’ll be tasked with the most challenging question of the trade deadline. Do they, or do they not trade Ohtani?

The Angels are now in a "listening mode" with Shohei Ohtani trade inquiries, per @jonmorosi pic.twitter.com/W7WUwrGTmN

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 15, 2023

Bovada’s 2023 MLB trade deadline odds have him at -375 to stay in Los Angeles. However, they may not have a choice but to try and get something for him before he walks.

So, who will trade for Shohei Ohtani?

The Dodgers (+500) and Mets (+750) are next on the odds list, but I’m going to say that Ohtani gets dealt to the Yankees (+900). How exciting would it be to see Ohtani in pinstripes after his comparisons to Babe Ruth?

New York would have to send over a ton of great prospects, such as Jasson Dominguez. The Yankees have come up short way too often for their liking, so they could get desperate here and pull the trigger on a gargantuan trade.

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As I said, all eyes will be on the Angels to see if they trade Ohtani at this year’s deadline, but there will also be other impactful trades that could shape the rest of this season as well.

The other Los Angeles team, the Dodgers, tends to be very busy at the deadline every year, and I expect more of the same in 2023.

They are sitting atop the NL West with a 53-39 record, but they still have holes to fill. I could see them adding more arms in the starting rotation and the bullpen, but one of their most glaring needs is at shortstop.

Gavin Lux was expected to be the starter for 2023, but he tore his ACL earlier this year. They’ve used several different players at the position, but they would benefit from having a true shortstop.

One player they could get without breaking the bank would be Tim Anderson from the Chicago White Sox.

Anderson is having a miserable season, slashing just .223/.258/.262. He’s also a poor defender, which might have you wondering why I predict him going to the Dodgers.

Jason Heyward is another player who looks like a new version of himself in his first season with the Dodgers.

Los Angeles could try their luck with Anderson and get him back into shape. Anderson has hit over .300 in the four years prior to 2023. He even won the batting title in 2019 with a .335 average and came in second the following year after hitting .322.

I do think there’s a chance Chicago will keep him this season, especially since his 2023 numbers are horrific. Also, he’s not a free agent until 2024, so Chicago could wait another year before they pawn him off.

The 2023 MLB trade odds for Anderson to stay in Chicago have a decent value at +105. However, I’m shooting for more upside, and the Dodgers make a lot of sense.

The White Sox are in the midst of a forgettable season, which means their impending free agents will likely be on the move. One of their better trade chips is starting pitcher Lucas Giolito, who has a 3.45 ERA after the first half of the season.

Giolito will enter free agency after this year, which means the 40-55 White Sox should try and get something for him while they can.

The 29-year-old is holding lefties to a .203 batting average while righties are hitting .234. He throws a mid-90s fastball with a slider, changeup, and the occasional curve.

Giolito allows a healthy amount of home runs and can be a bit wild, but he’s able to get a decent amount of strikeouts. Chicago won’t be able to get another team’s top prospect without including other players in the deal, but they could snag some decent young guys in return.

There aren’t any teams in the MLB who can’t use a middle-of-the-rotation starter who can hold his own. Someone has to eat those innings up, and Giolito is a capable player.

The Dodgers (+300), Phillies (+400), and Astros (+400) are seen as the top contenders for the righty, but I’m going with the Orioles. Baltimore has a very talented roster, but their starting pitching is an issue.

Their starting rotation has a collective 4.49 ERA and ranks 22nd in the MLB in WAR (4.8). On the other hand, their bullpen tops the MLB in WAR (4.6) and is top five in ERA (3.63).

You can’t maximize your bullpen’s effectiveness if you’re playing from behind, which means the Orioles must improve their starting rotation. Giolito might not be the hottest name on the market, but he would be a solid fit in Baltimore.

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It’s important to mention that you can also bet on certain players to remain with their current teams through the deadline. You might have seen some 2023 MLB trade rumors about Shane Bieber, but he’s one of my picks to remain with his squad.

Bieber would certainly draw interest from just about any contending team. You can get only so many ace-like pitchers at the trade deadline, so he would be a hot commodity if Cleveland were to make him available.

That said, there are many reasons for the Guardians to keep him.

First of all, he’s sporting a 3.77 ERA in 2023, which is his worst since his rookie season. A big reason for that is his elbow injury, which has shut him down for at least the next two weeks.

Cleveland would also have a hard time finding a team who would trade them top prospects for an injured pitcher. It’s easier to trade players when their stock is high, which is not the case for Bieber right now.

The 28-year-old also has one year of arbitration left before he becomes a free agent in 2025. That means the Guardians could wait until then to trade him away.

There’s also no guarantee Cleveland would even consider trading their best pitcher in a season in which they plan to compete. They are having a down year at 45-48, but they are just 2.5 games behind Minnesota in the AL Central.

Bieber could rejoin their rotation in a few weeks and help Cleveland march to the postseason.

My 2023 MLB trade deadline predictions continue with the Texas Rangers trading for Cody Bellinger.

Bellinger is having a nice comeback season with the Chicago Cubs, but there’s a good chance he’s traded at this year’s deadline.

Chicago signed Bellinger to a one-year deal worth $17.5 million with a mutual option in 2024. With how Bellinger has been playing, he likely wants to sign a long-term deal as soon as possible.

The Cubs are 43-49 and are struggling to keep pace in the NL Central. Milwaukee leads the division, and Cincinnati has been a whole new ball club since Elly De La Cruz was called up.

It will also be difficult for the Cubs to sneak into the Wild Card round when they are already 8 games out with stiff competition.

Cody Bellinger second bomb of the night and that trade value is going UP. pic.twitter.com/G3QYDKuoy7

— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) July 15, 2023

Another reason why Bellinger could be on the move is because of Pete Crow-Armstrong. He’s one of the best prospects in the MLB and will likely take over as Chicago’s center fielder in 2024.

Bellinger is a former MVP and is slashing .305/.362/.531 with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 2023. The 28-year-old lefty is also one of the very best defensive center fielders in the MLB. There should be a lot of interest around the league when it comes to Bellinger, and I’m trying my luck with the Texas Rangers.

Texas was scorching hot in the first half of the season and is sitting atop the AL West. If they want to hold off Houston and Seattle, they will still need more firepower.

Not only does Bellinger give them a nice offensive threat for the left-hand side of the plate, but they also get a phenomenal defender.

Other teams with intriguing 2023 MLB trade deadline odds include the Yankees (+200) and Braves (+650).

As you can see, there are a lot of intriguing bets you can make for this year’s MLB trade deadline. The 2023 MLB trade odds aren’t just on any site, so make sure you sign up somewhere that’s sure to have them.

If you love betting on baseball, you can’t go wrong with a site like Bovada. They’ll offer a ton of fun trade props over the next few weeks, so make sure you take advantage by visiting their site.

If you’re looking for more of my 2023 MLB trade deadline predictions, here are three more:

Chicago should continue to stay busy after trading Cody Bellinger. Marcus Stroman has been incredible for them in 2023, which means they should get a huge haul for him. I have him reuniting with the Toronto Blue Jays, but I expect a bidding war.

James Paxton is another starting pitcher that could be dealt. He has a 3.51 ERA for the Red Sox and could be useful for a team that needs a lefty.

If the Shohei Ohtani trade rumors are true, then there’s a good chance the Angels will trade more than just him. Hunter Renfroe is a very underrated power hitter, and Miami is lacking in that area.

There’s a good chance that the majority of my trade deadline predictions are wrong, but I’ll be happy if I get at least one or two right. This isn’t exactly an easy thing to predict, but the payouts make it worth the risk.

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Footnotes:

• CBS Sports provided details of Gavin Lux’s injury.
• Prospects and storylines are courtesy of the official MLB site.
• Individual player and team statistics are from Fangraphs.