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UKTop 24 NFL Betting Stats for 2024
NFL betting stats are there to guide you through the process of identifying good bets. By “good” we mean those football bets that come with attractive odds and are likely to win.
Analyzing key metrics like QBR, ATS records, special team performance, and similar can help you make more accurate predictions.
We’re not saying this without proof. Keep on reading and you will see that there’s some hard evidence providing the importance of advanced football betting statistics.
Want to use our favorite 2024 football betting stats to place some bets? Just be sure to do so at the best NFL betting sites this year.
1. 80% of Top 5 QBR Quarterbacks Made the Playoffs
I’ll start my key 2024 NFL betting stats talk with a fact that illustrates the importance of having an elite passer under center. The team with a quarterback who had the highest QBR won the Super Bowl on four occasions in the last 15 seasons.
What’s interesting is that wasn’t the case last season when it was won by the Kansas City Chiefs, whose quarterback was 8th in QBR.
The top 5 quarterbacks according to quarterback rating (QBR) in 2023 were:
- Brock Purdy (49ers)
- Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Josh Allen (Bills)
- Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- Justin Herbert (Chargers)
Their teams had a win percentage of over .500.
In fact, apart from the Chargers, all those teams had a win percentage of over .600 in the regular season. The Chargers were the only team with a top 5 QBR quarterback that missed the postseason.
Something similar happened the year before as well. Teams of the top 5 quarterbacks with the highest QBR all had a win percentage higher than .500, with three of those going even higher than .700.
2. 35% of Teams in Top 15 for Special Teams Made the Playoffs
Ahead of every NFL season, Rick Gosselin releases important football betting statistics on his website. Among those are stats related to special teams.
If you take a look at the Special Teams Rankings from last year, you’ll see that only four of the Top 15 teams in the rankings ended up qualifying for the postseason.
Knowing this, football betting fans might want to ignore the stats related to the performances of special teams. That, or you should focus on teams that might have good special teams production, but also pass the eye test on offense and defense.
3. 7-3 – Week 1 Record of Super Bowl Winners After Winning the Title
The Super Bowl winners started their title-defending campaign with a win in seven of the last 10 seasons.
Interestingly, that wasn’t the case in the last two seasons. Both times, the Super Bowl champions – the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams – started the new season with a loss.
For what it’s worth, the Chiefs and Ravens face off in week one of 2024 and KC is the favorite:
Bettors should always factor in a potential Super Bowl hangover anytime they bet on teams – whether it be week one of the following season or just in general.
However, recent history suggests betting on last year’s champion to win their week one contest is a pretty good bet.
4. 14-6 – Detroit Lions’ ATS Last Season (#1 in NFL)
Last season, the Detroit Lions were the best team overall against the spread (ATS), going 14-6.
They went all the way to the NFC Championship Game, where they lost by just 3 points to the San Francisco 49ers, who were 8-point favorites.
The year before, they ranked 2nd in ATS, with their journey ending in the regular season. Knowing this, a high ATS might be a sign that the team is going to improve its record in the following season.
It also may mean we should bet in favor of the Lions when looking at point spreads, if their last two seasons are any indication of what we can expect form them going forward.
5. 60% – Winning % of Teams With a Top 10 RB in Big Rush Plays
One of the 2024 football betting stats you should pay closer attention to is running back performance. The thing is that 6 of the top 10 running backs with the most 10+ yard runs made the playoffs last season.
Their teams had a win percentage of over .500. In fact, 5 of the top 10 teams by win percentage had at least one RB who ranked in the top 10 in big rush plays.
It should shock nobody that Christian McCaffrey topped all RBs in this stat in 2023 and helped the Niners reach the Super Bowl.
He isn’t expected to regress in 2024.
Efficiency is important for NFL offenses, so having explosive rushers who can make the most of their touches clearly gives teams an edge.
This should put an extra onus on offensive line upgrades, as well as free agency moves where certain running backs fit the bill, but have changed teams.
6. 3 NFL Teams with a Top 10 RB in Broken Tackles Made the Playoffs
Only three teams with running backs in the top 10 in broken tackles made the playoffs last year, which accounts for just 30%.
Travis Etienne of the Jacksonville Jaguars led the way with 31 broken tackles, but his team didn’t make the playoffs. Knowing this, it’s clear that this is a stat you should disregard.
Needless to say, individual performance and context of performance is kind of a big deal.
You can have a running back who sheds tackles like crazy, but bettors need to consider two things. Do they accomplish this despite working behind a bad o-line or not getting help form the passing game? And do they break tackles when it matters least?
Context is key, but looking at 2023 alone, running backs who broke a lot of tackles didn’t move the needle enough.
7. 5-12 – Record for the Over for the Carolina Panthers in 2023
Last season, the Carolina Panthers finished with a 2-15 record – the worst record of any NFL team since 2001. The main reason behind their poor record was their offense, which went 5-12 for the Over.
The management decided to tackle the issue by hiring offensive guru Dave Canales.
The 2024 NFL season will be his first in the role of a head coach, but he’s got plenty of experience working with elite offensive players as he previously worked as the offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers, as well as the QB coach for the Seahawks.
They also drafted a couple of promising youngsters, most notably, WR Xavier Legette (32nd overall) and RB Jonathon Brooks (46th overall). Knowing this, it’s only logical that they’re going to do better in terms of the “over” this time around.
That said, offensive output is key when betting on Over/Unders in games. Carolina may remain bad in 2024, which means you can probably keep hammering the Under in their games.
8. 12-6 – Cleveland Browns’ Over Record in 2023 (#1 in NFL)
The Over hit 66.7% of the time in Cleveland Browns games in 2023. This isn’t good news for the Browns as the team that had the same percentage a year earlier (Vikings) dropped to 41.2% in 2023.
This, however, doesn’t necessarily need to be the case with the Browns who are expected to do very well offensively in 2024. This goes especially once their star RB Nick Chubb makes a comeback.
Something interesting of note; Cleveland lost both their starting quarterback and top running back to injuries. Losing Nick Chubb made them pass a bit more than perhaps they wanted to, while backup Joe Flacco was impossibly better than the guy he replaced, Deshaun Watson.
Cleveland could be a unique case, but factoring in offensive talent and schematic changes ahead of time can help you correctly bet on game totals.
9. 6-4 – Pittsburgh Steelers Record as an Underdog in 2023
The Pittsburgh Steelers were the biggest giant slayers in the 2023 NFL. They were the underdog in 10 games last season but ended up winning 6 of those. Will something similar happen in 2024?
It might, given that their 2024 roster looks pretty solid with the addition of QBs Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, as well as the appointment of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
Further, if you take a look at NFL betting stats from earlier seasons, you’ll see that this trend tends to persist. For example, in 2022, the team with the best record as the underdog was the New York Giants.
They went 6-5-1 in games in which they had plus-money odds. A year later, the Giants were 5-11 in games in which NFL bookmakers saw them as underdogs.
10. 4-13 – Record of the Team With the Toughest Schedule in 2023
The New England Patriots had the ugliest schedule of all the teams in the 2023 NFL. Unsurprisingly, they went 4-13 in the end. Will they do better this time around?
Unfortunately for them, in their first post-Belichick season, they’re once again a team with a horrible schedule. In fact, their 2024 schedule is ranked second-worst, just behind the one of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Of course, the main takeaway here is that a bad strength of schedule can often equate to more losing than expected. It helps that the team is also not good, but add in a brutal schedule, and you can feel better about targeting teams such as the Pats.
This can play into weekly bets, but can be extra useful when betting on NFL futures such as win totals or if a team will make the playoffs.
For 2024, the Steelers own the league’s toughest strength of schedule, while the Pats are second in line. Ouch.
11. 74% – Top 15 Teams in Strength of Schedule That Were Above .500
The team that had the easiest predicted schedule in 2023 was New Orleans, and the Saints went 9-8 in the end. In fact, 11 of the 15 teams with the softest strength of schedule finished the season with a winning record that year.
Fast-forward to 2024 and these are the top 15 teams with the easiest strength of schedule based on the opponents’ projected win totals:
- Atlanta Falcons
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Chicago Bears
- New York Jets
- New Orleans Saints
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Indianapolis Colts
- Miami Dolphins
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Carolina Panthers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Washington Commanders
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Seattle Seahawks
Context may still be pretty important here. What division each team plays in, their coaching staff, and the talent they have should all be taken into account.
You don’t want to simply place bets purely on where a team’s schedule ranks.
That said, the Falcons made major moves this off-season and could benefit immensely form the softest 2024 schedule. The same goes for the Chargers, Bears, and Jets.
Based on their coaching, talent, and schedule, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if at least four of those squads – heck, maybe all five – made the playoffs this year.
12. 10 – NFL Playoff Teams Inside Top 15 for Easiest Strength of Schedule
Ten of the 15 teams with the easiest strength of schedule made the playoffs last year. In 2022, however, only 7 of the top 15 teams with the easiest SOS advanced to the postseason.
A year earlier, it was 5 out of 15.
What this means is that even though an easy SOS isn’t a sure indicator of the team’s performance across the season, it sure does help. A good team with an easy schedule is almost certain to make the playoffs.
You may want to do extra research to bridge the gap between a team merely finishing above .500 and actually making it to the playoffs, though.
13. 0 – Repeat NFC East Division Winners Since 2004
The Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders, and New York Giants are the four teams competing in the NFC East. Every season for the past two decades, the division has had a different winner, showing how competitive the NFC East actually is.
Most recently, the Dallas Cowboys won it, but can they get back-to-back division titles? This is something that hasn’t happened in the NFC East since 2004.
Heck, there’s a fear they might regress to the point of even missing the playoffs this season.
Judging by the 2024 NFL division winner odds, it won’t happen this time either.
The Cowboys are second on the list of favorites with +170 odds. The Eagles are priced at -125, which makes them odds-on favorites to win the division.
Is this the year this narrative takes a seat? Or is betting on someone other than last year’s NFC East champ a bet we can continue to bank on?
14. 16-0 – Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur’s Record in December
Matt LaFleur is the new Mr. December. The Green Bay head coach has a 16-0 record with the Packers in games played in the wintery month.
But it’s not just about him; the Packers are famous for doing very well in the late part of the regular season. They tend to build momentum as the season progresses, just in time to make a big push for the playoffs.
Will the same be the case this time around? They have four games scheduled for December. Three of those are on the road – against the Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, and Minnesota Vikings. Their only December game at Lambeau Field is against the New Orleans Saints.
Not having the benefit of the cold weather and elements could provide a dent in that perfect record, after all.
15. 7-0 – Patrick Mahomes’ Clutch Playoff Record with 1 Minute or Less
Patrick Mahomes has been incredibly effective in playoff games when his team was trailing with 60 seconds or less remaining on the clock.
In fact, his “clutch playoff record” is 7-0.
This is really extraordinary given that the season average is 40%.
Does this make the Kansas City Chiefs a good team to back during the playoffs, perhaps making some live bets on them while they’re losing? We think it’s definitely worth considering.
It will be a bit before you can put this football betting statistic to the test, but it’s one to keep in your back pocket. It’s stats like these that you’ll want to keep in mind when betting live on games, too.
16. 9 – Times 3 Teams From the Same Division Made the Playoffs
Did you know that in theory, it’s possible for all four teams from the same division to make the playoffs? However, such a scenario is very unlikely to happen. Actually, it’s never happened.
We did, however, see three teams from the same division make the postseason on 10 different occasions.
The last time it happened was last season when three teams from the AFC North Division made the playoffs, namely, the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Can the same happen this year? It might, although maybe not with the same three teams – with Joe Burrow healthy, the Cincinnati Bengals are likely to get in the playoff race as well.
As far as loaded divisions, the AFC East and NFC North come to mind. Then again, this is a small number considering how many NFL seasons there are. It shows it’s not impossible, but not exactly likely.
17. 6-5 – Cleveland Browns Record Without Deshaun Watson in 2023
The performance of NFL teams without their starting quarterbacks can differ significantly. These NFL betting statistics depend on how good their backup QB is, as well as on the overall quality of the team.
In the 2023 NFL season, some teams that lost their first-choice QB went on to do well; others failed miserably.
For example, the Cleveland Browns went 6-5 without their starting QB Deshaun Watson. However, the Arizona Cardinals completely fell apart without Kyler Murray to lead them – they went 1-8 without their starting QB in 2023.
Why was Cleveland able to find success? Well, it admittedly started with Joe Flacco playing well enough to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
It wasn’t just about the ageless wonder, though.
Cleveland also had some explosive talent in their passing game, they had fantastic coaching, and they also had a nasty defense led by Myles Garrett.
A team’s framework and mental makeup can go a long way in telling you how they’ll fare if they lose their top passer.
Arizona didn’t have the same winning foundation the Browns had. If we’re able to spot that ahead of time, we can correctly bet on teams when star quarterback succumb to injury.
18. Odds-On Moneyline Favorites Win in Two-Thirds of NFL Games
In the online betting lingo, the term “odds-on” refers to the situation in which the favorite is very likely to win, with a probability of over 50%. Every team with moneyline odds of -115 or lower is considered an odds-on favorite.
So, how often do odds-on favorites win in the NFL?
This usually happens around two-thirds of the time. In 2022, for example, moneyline favorites had a 175-88-2 record in the regular season, which equals almost exactly two-thirds of the games.
It may not always be the most profitable bet, but betting on NFL favorites is seemingly the correct take more often than not.
19. 21-4 – Andy Reid’s Coaching Record Following a Bye Week
The head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs Andy Reid is famous for his record in games after bye weeks. His teams won 22 regular season games following a bye, while losing only three. One of those three losses, however, happened last year – they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles.
What’s interesting is that the Eagles too were coming off a bye week. That said, Reid’s record in such situations isn’t that great – he’s 3-4 when both teams had an extra week to rest.
This isn’t shocking for the guy many call the league’s best coach.
In 2024, the Chiefs are playing against the San Francisco 49ers after the bye. The good news for Reid’s boys is that the Niners won’t be coming off a bye.
However, they will have 10 days to prepare for that duel. It’s because their game before the Super Bowl LVIII rematch is on Thursday Night Football.
20. 16 – Number of Division Titles Won by the Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are the team with the most division titles in the NFL.
These guys won the AFC West on 16 occasions. Half of those happened in the last eight seasons. The division is somewhat soft, which is why they’re favored to win it for the 9th time in a row.
It’s worth noting that the Chargers could be in for a spike, but nobody else is to be feared in this division. It’d be rather shocking if KC didn’t add to their pile of AFC West hardware at season’s end.
21. 60% – 2023 Playoff Teams That Were Top 10 in Turnover Differential
Six of the top 10 teams with the best turnover differential made the playoffs in the 2023 NFL season.
There were eight teams with a turnover differential of +10 or more and five of them qualified for the postseason.
Everyone knows that having the ball is important, but taking it away and holding onto it are about as meaningful. The better you protect the football, the fewer the opportunities your opponent has. The more you take it away, the more pressure applied to the team you’re facing.
The best teams in the league win the turnover battle, and as you can see, they usually make it to the playoffs if they do.
22. .300 – Win Percentage of Teams with Rookie QBs in Last 10 Years
Over the last decade, NFL teams with rookie QBs had relatively low success overall, with a win percentage in the ballpark of .300.
There were, however, some notable exceptions. Last year, for example, the Houston Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud led his team to a 10-7 record, winning the AFC South along the way.
Rookie quarterbacks can rise up and play very well. Every now and then, they will lead their team to instant success. However, in most cases, a quarterback is chosen by a team with a high draft pick. They got that pick almost always after a bad year.
This naturally means these teams aren’t very good, and adding one great player doesn’t always equate to wins right away.
23. 0 – Rookie NFL Quarterbacks to Play in the Super Bowl
No rookie quarterback has ever played in the NFL Championship Game. Actually, few first-year QBs have made it past the first playoff game.
One of those is Brock Purdy, who went all the way to the NFC Championship game in 2022 with the Niners.
In his second year as the starting quarterback for San Francisco, Purdy reached the Super Bowl, thus becoming the eighth second-year QB to start in the championship game. He didn’t win the Lombardi, but four other second-year QBs did in the past – Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Russell Wilson.
Is it possible Caleb Williams bucks this trend? Nick Wright seems to think so.
24. 11 – Number of NFL MVPs That Won the Super Bowl the Same Season
In the entire history of the NFL, only 11 players won the MVP award, as well as the Super Bowl in the same season.
Such a thing happened only once in the 21st century. It was 2022 when Patrick Mahomes was crowned the MVP in the regular season, after which he went on to win the Super Bowl with the Chiefs.
Could it be that fluffy stats or a finesse style are good for putting up production, but not as useful when it matters most? It seems that could very well be the case.
Using Key NFL Stats to Bet on Pro Football in 2024
There you have it, the most interesting and hopefully very useful NFL betting stats for the 2024 season. 24 for 24, as it were.
Obviously some of these football betting stats won’t translate. Others could end up helping you win bets very easily. It’s up to you, the bettor, to do the extra digging to uncover more context to formulate winning bets.
I can point you to some useful data, but I can’t fully predict the future. What I can tell you for sure, however, is that next to using some good NFL betting statistics, the most important thing this year is using a quality sportsbook.
Ideally you’re combining alluring bonuses with competitive odds and elite wager versatility. My favorite NFL betting site when considering the total package is Bovada.
Bovada has some of the best wagers and props you’ll find online, they have a solid welcome bonus, and they have cool features like their prop bet builder and parlay booster.
You can read more about them in our detailed Bovada review. Of course, there are a lot of great options to consider. For more terrific alternatives, read up on the best US sports betting sites before placing your 2024 bets.
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