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2024 Swing States Odds & Predictions
Swing states odds are moving fast as bettors focus on the seven battlegrounds that will decide the 2024 US presidential election. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are campaigning hard in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.
These states are in the balance heading into the November 5th election and you can bet on how things play out at the top political betting sites.
If you’re interested in doing so, I’ll walk you through all of the swing states and the latest odds, and also offer my preferred picks.
Michigan
Michigan is part of the Blue Wall that Harris simply must win to clinch the election. Yet it’s one of the tightest 2024 swing states.
Harris leads the polls in Michigan by 0.1% (270towin / Oct 14) and Trump has momentum here. He’s starting to gather support in the Black and Latino communities. It’s not a lot but it might be enough to tip the balance.
No wonder sportsbooks are shifting their odds in favor of Trump. BetUS has Trump and Harris locked on -120 each to win this state. But the best price for Trump comes from Bovada, which still has Harris in the lead. Trump is -105 to win at Bovada, and the widest odds on Harris is -110 at sportsbetting.ag.
Michigan Swing State Prediction
Michigan could be the state where we see a Florida-style recount from 2000. There’s nothing that splits the two candidates right now and this makes for a difficult bet. In a coin-toss situation, our prediction is Trump steals it by a few thousand votes.
At least you get more for your buck if you back him here.
North Carolina
Sportsbooks don’t know what to do with North Carolina. They all think Trump is likely to win, but some have a $40 variable on their Harris odds. Sportsbetting.ag price Harris at +160 to win the state, which is a huge price when you consider Trump leads by just 1.6% in the polls (270towin / Oct 11).
Bovada, meanwhile, have a much shorter price on Trump than other political betting sites, at -160. Do they know something the others don’t? We’re not so sure, but those odds are more eye-catching than the -200 price found elsewhere.
North Carolina was the epicenter of a Trump-fueled misinformation after Hurricane Helene swept through. That doesn’t appear to have harmed his electoral chances in the state.
North Carolina Swing State Prediction
North Carolina is a swing state but votes for Trump in 2020 and has gone Red in all but one election since 1980. I predict Trump wins 16 electoral college votes here.
Pennsylvania
Harris needs to win Pennsylvania otherwise she won’t win this election. That math just doesn’t add up unless she claims the Keystone State. So, how’s she doing there? The polls suggest Trump has a 0.1% lead (270towin / Oct 13) and the odds are backing Harris’ rival too.
Sportsbetting.ag has even priced Harris at +100, so confident are they that Trump (-130) will win here. The Dems are rallying, though, and Harris is trying to detach herself from Joe Biden’s economic legacy in the state. Harris will throw cash at Pennsylvania between now and election day, and this is likely to see her beat Trump – even if the odds suggest otherwise.
Pennsylvania Swing State Prediction
Harris simply has to win Pennsylvania and her team will spend more in this state in the final two weeks of the campaign than anywhere else.
Trump doesn’t need PA to win the election, so we think Harris will narrowly get over the line.
Georgia
Every political betting site is backing Trump to beat Harris in Georgia. This swing state became the center of attention at the 2020 US election but might be an easy win for Trump this time around.
Georgia traditionally votes Republican but came into play after rejecting Trumpism four years ago. It’s officially a swing state but few analysts believe it will stay Blue this time. Georgia votes in a wave of GOP candidates in the 2022 midterms. Sixty percent of Georgia’s vote covers 30 counties in the Atlanta metropolitan area. These are more likely to back Harris but it’s the outlying counties that could earn Trump the win here.
Georgia Swing State Prediction
The odds all point to Trump and I can’t see him losing Georgia, especially when you look at the state’s historic voting record.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is the only state where betting sites are split on who to place as the favorite. Bovada have Harris as the frontrunner, while BetUS backs Trump. The difference between the two candidates is minimal, however, and it’s no wonder the odds are flipping so quickly between the two.
Harris leads Wisconsin by 0.3% in the polls (270towin / Oct 11) and the state has only voted Republican once since 1984. Trump won it in 2016, though, and this is causing betting sites a headache. Harris just can’t shake him off and Wisconsin – formerly a sure Blue state – is now a coin toss.
Wisconsin Swing State Prediction
Harris needs to win Blue Wall states to stand any chance in this election. Wisconsin is her easiest target and if we assume the national race goes down to the wire then we can probably count on Wisconsin voting Democrat this fall.
Nevada
Nevada only carries six electoral college votes but it’s a big state for Harris if she is to become president. It’s the most achievable Sun Belt state for the Dems, as Trump has struggled for years to court favor in Las Vegas, Henderson, and Reno.
Demographic and attitudinal shifts in Nevada means it’s now a strong Dem target. Biden won here by 2.4% in 2020. But Trump has a 0.6% lead according to the latest polls (270towin / Oct 11) and this will be worrying the Dems.
Nevada Swing State Prediction
Trump is the underdog across top betting sites to win Nevada because Harris is struggling to convince Latino voters to back her. This could be an accidental win for Trump in a state he doesn’t need to surpass 270 electoral college votes.
Arizona
Betting sites appear confident that Trump will win Arizona. This swing state carries the biggest disparity in odds between the two candidates. Trump has a 1.8% poll lead (270towin / Oct 14) and is gaining momentum. Even Kari Lake is looking like she could win her US Senate race this fall.
The Dems don’t need Arizona to win this election but the state’s 11 electoral college votes are crucial for Trump. He’s pushing hard here and one poll even has him five points up.
Arizona Swing State Prediction
Trump will win Arizona, I’m confident of that. In fact, the odds are so heavily in Trump’s favor that a political parlay might be the only way to squeeze true value out of this wager.
Blue Wall Sweep Betting
The Blue Wall swing states consist of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This traditionally is Democrat territory but the GOP washed the blue away in 2016. The Blue Wall is fragile and Harris leads in just two of the three states.
BetUS believe Harris is +125 to complete a Blue Wall sweep. That’s shorter than Trump (+155) but not by much.
Remember, Harris needs Pennsylvania to win the election and will plunge more resources into that state than anywhere else. The Harris props are also focusing on PA, but this leaves other Blue Wall states – particularly Michigan – vulnerable to a GOP attack.
Harris has many celebrity endorsements from northern states but Trump has the media spotlight. Right now, we don’t think either candidate will sweep the Blue Wall this fall.
Sun Belt Sweep Betting
A Sun Belt sweep means winning the six states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Texas. Now, we can assume Texas and Florida will vote Republican, even in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton that some thought would affect voter preferences this fall.
Georgia and North Carolina are tipped to back Trump, while Arizona looks a safe bet. The question, then, is will Nevada follow the rest of the belt in going Red?
BetUS aren’t so sure and have priced the GOP at +145 to win all six states. The Dems have no chance at +900. This is a real difficult call because Trump certainly has the popularity to sweep the belt. The big question is whether Nevada joins in.
Betting on Swing States in 2024
The swing states odds paint a clear picture on who betting sites believe will win the 2024 US election. Sites like Bovada and BetUS have Trump props on him winning Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Harris is down to win Nevada, while Michigan and Wisconsin could lean Blue.
Then there is Pennsylvania, the biggest of the swing states picks in this election. Sportsbooks back Trump to win the state Harris simply cannot afford to lose.
Those looking for value in the swing states betting odds should look at states where Harris leads in the polls, but where Trump is close behind. Michigan and Pennsylvania are in Trump’s sights.
Trump’s path to 270 is far smoother than Harris’. This means it’s easier to confidently bet on Trump, knowing he is in the race across all seven swing states.
Best Swing State Bet: Our #1 Swing State Bet is to back Trump to win Michigan at -105 with Bovada. If he wins Michigan then he’s almost certainly won Pennsylvania too, and is on his way to the White House.
Ready to bet on the 2024 US Election? Consider everything I’ve said about the swing states this year and head to Bovada.
