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Betting Guide for UFC 291 with Latest Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Last Updated July 25, 2023 10:02 am PDT
UFC 291 Odds with Poirier vs. Gaethje
  • Justin Gaethje seeks revenge against Dustin Poirier in the UFC 291 headliner fight.
  • Jan Blachowicz (-125) looks more than capable of ruining Alex Pereira’s Light Heavyweight debut.
  • With UFC 291 odds of +355, Tony Ferguson might be the best underdog bet of the year.

Justin Gaethje is the fighter who lands the most significant strikes in the entire lightweight division (7.38 per minute), while Dustin Poirier is third on that list (6.18).

This explains why Dana White has given them a chance to fight for the “BMF,” a.k.a. “bad motherfu**er” title in the UFC 291 main event.

The headliner fight looks exciting enough to make everyone obsess with the July 29 event, but that’s only the tip of the iceberg. We’re also going to see Alex Pereira make his UFC Light Heavyweight debut, while there are questions about Tony Ferguson’s retirement.

If you’re still not convinced that the event in Salt Lake City is going to be a banger, you should also know that the UFC 291 odds are amazing.

Whether you like backing favorites or underdogs, the top sports betting sites will give you great value for all of the UFC 291 fights.

Odds for UFC 291

Fighter A Odds Fighter B Odds
Dustin Poirier -150 Justin Gaethje +120
Jan Blachowicz -125 Alex Pereira -105
Stephen Thompson -150 Michel Pereira +120
Tony Ferguson +320 Bobby Green -420
Michael Chiesa +120 Kevin Holland -150
Gabriel Bonfim -315 Trevin Giles +240
Derrick Lewis +172 Marcos Rogerio de Lima -212
Roman Kopylov -250 Claudio Ribeiro +200
Jake Matthews -280 Darrius Flowers +220
C.J. Vergara -160 Vinicius Salvador +130
Matthew Semelsberger -210 Uroš Medic +170
Miranda Maverick -300 Priscila Cachoeira +225

It’s been a while since the betting odds were so good in the UFC. The ones you see above are from BetUS, but they don’t differ much if you take them from any other leading betting site – BetOnline, MyBookie, Everygame, etc.

The UFC 291 betting odds for the main event are very close, as you would expect from a fight for the “BMF” title. Still, it’s the co-main event where they’re almost identical – Blachowicz and Pereira both come with minus-money odds.

The biggest odds discrepancy is for the Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green fight.

Green is given -420 UFC 291 odds, making him the biggest fight card favorite. You’d need to bet $420 on him for a chance to win $100, which isn’t a great deal.

Actually – as you’ll learn later in this UFC 291 preview – I think doing just the opposite would be the smart thing to do. But before I explain why “El Cucuy” might be a good bet, I need to analyze the biggest fight of the evening – Poirier vs. Gaethje 2.

Before I dive into that, make sure to place your UFC 291 best bets at BetUS.

UFC 291 Main Event Preview

I think it’s really a coin toss when it comes to who’s going to win this fight. The UFC 291 odds are (slightly) in favor of Gaethje, mainly because he’s already shown he knows how to beat Gaethje. He defeated him by a technical knockout in 2018.

But this only means that Gaethje has even more motivation to go all-in on Saturday. This guy is already famous for being tough as nails with a chin of concrete.

He gets hit 7.66 times per minute, which is one of the worst numbers in the UFC, but “The Highlight” doesn’t seem to mind. He just keeps going.

Literally, anything can happen in this fight. Poirier might knock Gaethje out, but the reverse can also easily happen. Plus, we could see Gaethje finally start using his wrestling skills more, take the fight to the ground, and record his first submission win since 2012.

Whatever happens, one thing is certain. Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 is going to be worthy of a “BMF” fight. In fact, I think it’s very likely that this duel will win the Fight of the Night accolade.

That’s something you might be able to bet on at BetOnline, which usually releases its UFC props odds a day or two before the event.

In the meantime, you can back Justin Gaethje at this online sportsbook as it’s giving the +138 UFC 291 odds on “The Highlight” winning.

Best Bets for UFC 291

Alex Pereira is moving up to the UFC Light Heavyweight division this weekend, where he will fight Jan Blachowicz, who is natural at 205 pounds.

UFC 291 betting odds suggest this will be a very close fight in which Pereira stands a decent chance of winning. This is because he’s one of the best kickboxers on Earth.

Still, I doubt he can beat the Big Pole by KO/TKO. After all, that’s something only Thiago Santos has done in the UFC. And Santos is way more powerful than Pereira. Instead, I suspect Blachowicz might do that to him, especially if the fight goes to the ground.

The next stop is the Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland fight, in which I can see “Trailblazer” winning easily. He’s a jack of all trades, while Chiesa is all about wrestling/grappling with very poor striking. Holland just needs to keep him at a distance, and he’s going to win.

Then we move to my favorite underdog bet of the event. Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson is given the UFC 291 odds of +355 because of his 5-fight losing streak.

It sounds bad, but there’s a caveat – he lost to fighters who are way above his next opponent.

Full UFC 291 Card Predictions

  • Justin Gaethje to Beat Dustin Poirier
  • Jan Blachowicz to Beat Alex Pereira
  • Stephen Thompson to Beat Michel Pereira
  • Tony Ferguson to Beat Bobby Green
  • Kevin Holland to Beat Michael Chiesa
  • Gabriel Bonfim to Beat Trevin Giles
  • Derrick Lewis to Beat Marcos Rogerio de Lima
  • Roman Kopylov to Beat Claudio Ribeiro
  • Jake Matthews to Beat Darrius Flowers
  • C.J. Vergara to Beat Vinicius Salvador
  • Matthew Semelsberger to Beat Uroš Medić
  • Miranda Maverick to Beat Priscila Cachoeira

My favorite UFC 291 bet is Kevin Holland in the main card opener. I also like Jan Blachowicz in the co-main event and Stephen Thompson in the feature fight. Their UFC 291 odds are very good, considering how good fighters these guys are. 

History teaches us that big upsets happen in big events such as UFC 291. I can see at least two upsets on the main card – Justin Gaethje and Tony Ferguson.

Despite his losing streak, Ferguson has stated he’ll retire when he’s ready.

When it comes to the preliminary fights, we should see most of the favorites win, with Marcos Rogerio de Lima being the only one I’d stay away from.

It’s not that he’s not a good fighter; it’s just that his opponent has the nuclear option in his fists.

Betting on UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

One final piece of advice I have for you regarding UFC 291 is to watch the event via UFC Fight Pass and, if needed, do some live betting. This goes especially for the main and co-main event.

For instance, if Blachowicz takes the fight to the ground, it means it’s time to back the Polish fighter. I honestly doubt Pereira has the grappling skills necessary to escape from such a situation.

In the Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 fight, it’s all about who’s the tougher fighter. I suspect this will be a marathon fight, so watch closely to see which of the two is more likely to gas out.

Want more action to close out July? Feel free to check out my Bellator x Rizin 2 betting guide. If you need a little more help, our MMA betting guide takes a dive into useful strategies and expert betting advice.

Footnotes:

  • Fighter statistics was taken from UFCStats.
  • Event info courtesy of the official UFC site.
Zarko Naric
Zarko Naric Editor

Zarko Naric – the World's Greatest Sportswriter, according to his grandma.

Zarko started writing for GamblingSites.com in 2019, covering sports like soccer, tennis, and basketball, as well as some more niche sports like cycling.

In addition to writing news, picks, and blog pieces focused on sports, Zarko’s also been covering politics, TV/music contests, and more.

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