Latest UFC 301 Odds & Expert Picks

The UFC 301 odds are live at the top MMA sportsbooks. It’s Brazil versus the rest of the world at this massive event, which will take place at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday, May 4, 2024.

We’ll see a Brazilian fighter in every single one of the 14 bouts announced for this event, and the UFC 301 odds suggest most of them will win easily. The reigning UFC Flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja is heavily favored to win the main event, and the same goes for another 10 of his compatriots.

Are sports betting sites correct in favoring Brazilians to win at UFC Rio? To see what I think, you can check out my UFC 301 predictions later in the post. But first, let’s see how good the UFC 301 odds actually are.

While making this betting preview, I compared the UFC 301 odds from several MMA betting sites. They all offer pretty much the same odds for favorites, but it’s at BetOnline that’s giving much better value on underdogs. And my UFC 301 prediction is that a couple of underdogs will win in Rio.

Whether you’re planning to bet on favorites, underdogs, or mix it up, BetOnline is your arguably best choice. Apart from offering attractive UFC 301 betting odds, this online sportsbook is great for lucrative sports bonuses.

There’s a 50% up to $1,000 sports welcome bonus up for grabs at BetOnline for non-crypto deposits. If you go with crypto, the deal in question is a 100% match. The best thing about this bonus is that you can use it for UFC 301 betting.

Now that you know where to bet on UFC 301, it’s time to learn which bets to make. I’ll start my UFC 301 predictions with the main event, which is the fight for the title in the 125-pound division. Alexandre Pantoja (27-5) is defending his UFC Flyweight title against Steve Erceg (12-1).

Judging by the Pantoja vs. Erceg odds, the champion will stay true to his nickname “The Cannibal” and devour his opponent on May 4.

What’s my Pantoja vs. Erceg pick? I also think the Brazilian fighter is likely to win. The thing is that he’s proven himself to be an elite fighter. He won the title last year after beating Brandon Moreno. A few months later, he defended it by beating Brandon Royval.

The win over Royval last December was Pantoya’s fifth straight win in the UFC. Meanwhile, Steve Erceg is only fighting his fourth UFC fight on May 4.

He’s 3-0 in Dana White’s promotion, with only one fight against a ranked opponent. It happened last March when we saw him beat Matt Schnell by KO. The win basically opened the door to the championship fight for the Aussie. But Schnell is nowhere near as good as Erceg’s next opponent.

On May 4, Pantoja is fighting in his hometown and with his fans to support him, he will eat Erceg alive. At least that’s my UFC 301 main event prediction.

Alexandre Pantoja to beat Steve Erceg is one of my top UFC 301 picks. I’ve already explained why that is the case, and now, it’s time to share my reasoning for another two picks.

The first of those is Vitor Petrino. Nicknamed “Merciless”, the 11-0 Brazilian has practically ended the UFC career of a couple of fighters already.

This includes Anton Turkalj and Tyson Pedro, both of whom were removed from the UFC roster relatively shortly after fighting Petrino. The same probably won’t happen to Anthony Smith, but I do think Petrino will beat him.

I also expect Ismael Bonfim to beat Vinc Pichel, a 41-year-old fighter who’s been without a win for almost three years. Bonfim should be able to out-strike him, using his speed and agility as an advantage.

I’ve not only handed you my favorite UFC 301 picks, but you also have three really good UFC Betting Sites to choose from. The point isn’t to follow me blindly or to just pick a random sportsbook, though. It’s to diversify your options and make sure you’re hunting for value.

After three relatively safe bets, here are two with plus-money UFC 301 odds. I think legendary Brazilian fighter Jose Aldo will end his win drought on May 4. He hasn’t won since 2021, and given that he’s turning 38 this summer, this could be his last chance to get back into the spotlight.

Aldo is seen as the underdog by every bookmaker, with BetOnline being the one to offer the best odds. I think backing the former champion at +100 is a smart idea.

If +100 isn’t good enough value for you, I’ve got another bet for you, with even longer UFC 301 odds. What I’m talking about is Paul Craig to beat Caio Borralho, which is +275 at Bovada.

The reason for this is that “Bear Jew” performs best when no one has faith in him. Craig is the man who defeated Magomed Ankalaev despite being a +500 underdog. He also beat Jamahal Hill, Nikita Krylov, Andre Muniz, and a few other heavy favorites.

BetOnline is the best overall site for betting on UFC 301, but as you can see above, you’re getting a better price at Bovada if you want to bet on Paul Craig to win. Not familiar with Bovada? Feel free to learn more about the sportsbook by reading our review below.

It’s no exaggeration to call Brazil a real fighting nation, the evidence being that there have been 252 Brazilians in the UFC. That’s second only to the United States. 

Almost one-fifth of them are still under contract with Dana White’s MMA organization, and 15 of them are expected to fight in Rio de Janeiro on May 4.

I think Brazilians will win in most UFC 301 fights, with only a couple of exceptions. I think Scottish fighter Paul Craig will beat his Brazilian opponent, but bookies don’t seem to agree with me – they’re giving +275 odds on Craig.

There are two more non-Brazilians who I expect to win in Rio – Myktybek Orolbai and Drakker Klose – but for these two, oddsmakers share my opinion.

Now that you know where and how to bet on UFC 301, it’s time to head over to BetOnline and back Pantoja and other fighters.

“The Cannibal” is my favorite UFC Rio pick, but feel free to go heavy on most other Brazilians scheduled to fight on May 4. The last time UFC held an event in Brazil, Brazilian fighters won in 60% of the fights. I think something similar is very likely to happen again.

Of course, you may disagree with my top pick, or even my other UFC 301 bets I am suggesting. I’m not here to convince you one way or the other, but it’s worth noting I’ve had a solid success rate with my picks.

More importantly, make sure you’re using good sportsbooks and getting the most bang for your buck. It might even be a good idea to parlay some UFC 301 bets together, depending on how confident you are, or how much you’d like to risk.

For some insight on parlay betting, including the best sportsbooks to bet on parlays, check out this guide.

5 Best Parlay Betting Sites Online

The best parlay betting sites offer competitive odds on multi-leg wagers and exemplary features for customers. You can make mega parlays with up to 16 legs or same-game parlays with a choice of props. Plus, the top online parlay sites offer big moolah when...

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