Latest UFC 302 Odds & Picks

UFC 302 odds look great from a bettor’s perspective. This goes especially if you’re into backing underdogs. I know I’ll be backing some underdogs to win on June 1 in New Jersey.

History teaches us that big surprises do happen in PPV events, especially in championship fights. One such fight is the UFC 302 main event. This is a battle for the UFC Lightweight crown between reigning champ Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier who’s challenging for the title for the third time.

Co-main event looks exciting as well, with former middleweight champ Sean Strickland taking on Paulo Costa who looks huge ahead of UFC 302.

The rest of the fight card might not be as attractive as the top two events, but there are some really spicy matchups there as well. You’ll learn all about them if you keep on reading my UFC 302 betting preview.

I compared the UFC 302 odds from several of the top online sports betting sites to figure out which one offers the best value for the bets I’m planning to make. So, which one is it? It’s BetOnline and you can see this sportsbook’s odds in the table above.

While most sites are giving +350 on Dustin Poirier winning the UFC Lightweight belt, this sportsbook is offering +375. It’s a similar case for many other fights, but attractive UFC 302 odds aren’t the only thing that makes this betting site great.

This sportsbook is a fantastic choice for MMA betting for many other reasons, all of which you can read about in our BetOnline review.

Still, if I had to point out a single reason why you should register an account with this operator, it would be its bonuses. There’s a 50% welcome bonus up to $1,000 that you can use to bet on UFC 302.

Dustin Porier called the UFC 302 headliner his last shot and I think he’s probably right. At the age of 35, this is probably his last chance to become the undisputed UFC Lightweight champion.

He was already given two shots at the title in the past. In 2021, he fought and lost to third-degree BJJ black belt Charles Oliveira. Back in 2019, he lost to Islam Makhachev’s tutor Khabib Nurmagomedov. 

Unsurprisingly, Khabib took advantage of his wrestling, recording 7 takedowns in that fight and preventing Poirier from landing more than just 12 significant strikes in 12 and a half minutes.

That’s a horribly low number for a guy like Poirier who’s one of the best boxers in the division. On average, he lands 5.45 significant strikes per 60 seconds.

Khabib’s protégé is aware of this, which is why he’ll probably try to take the fight to the ground. He knows this, but so does Poirier, who’s probably spent the last couple of months (or even years!) trying to polish his grappling/wrestling skills.

According to coach Mike Brown, his jiu-jitsu is top-level and Makhachev might be in for a nasty surprise. Perhaps it’s time for Poirier to “jump the guilly” and finally get a win by this method?

He’s attempted the guillotine countless times so far, but none landed. Getting a win this way at UFC 302 would be a fairytale coming to life. I know it’s not very likely to happen, but I’d love nothing better than to see it happen.  

If you believe in miracles, why not back Poirier to become the champ at UFC 302? You can do it at EveryGame, where his odds are +400. Meanwhile, Makhachev fans will get the best value from betting on Dagestan’s favorite son at BetOnline where his odds are -500.

If you saw Paulo Costa in the gym, you’d probably assume this guy’s juicing – he’s huge but with very low body fat. But he’s not on steroids as confirmed by the anti-doping agency. In fact, he’s one of the most frequently tested UFC fighters ever.

So, either he’s like that naturally or he’s got a “secret juice.” Either way, he looks way more powerful than the former middleweight champ.

But power doesn’t have to mean anything if you don’t have the skills. Well, Borrachinha does have the skillset necessary to beat Strickland. Both are brawlers, but I think the Brazilian is just better striking-wise.

Where is Sean ? 🔥🧃👊 pic.twitter.com/Ms1Afc9IGg

— Paulo Costa ( Borrachinha ) (@BorrachinhaMMA) April 30, 2024

My opinion is based on the fact that he lands 6.20 significant strikes a minute, while Strickland’s number is 5.91. Not much of a difference but Costa also has a better knockout-to-win ratio. Paulo’s KO/TKO percentage is 78.57%, while Sean’s is 39.28%.

For all these reasons, Paulo Costa is my top UFC 302 pick. I also like Dustin Poirier’s chances, hoping that he’s finally going to land a win by guillotine choke. Neither of these bets, however, seems like a sure bet. At least not judging by the UFC 302 odds.

If you’re looking for a bet that’s more likely to win, I say go with Ailin Perez. She made herself sort of famous for twerking inside the Octagon after beating Lucie Pudilova last year. But what happened before that is what you should be focused on.

And what happened was that the Argentinean landed two takedowns and made more than twice as many significant strikes as her opponents.

Sounds impressive, right? But just a few months earlier, she did something even better – she made 10 TDs against Ashlee Evans-Smith and landed almost 50 strikes more.

If you look carefully, you’ll notice that most of my UFC 302 predictions are for favorites to win. In fact, the only two underdogs I’m planning to back are Dustin Poirier and Paulo Costa.

I’ve already explained why those are my top UFC 302 picks, so let me explain now why I think betting favorites will win in the remaining fights.

If you take a look at previous UFC PPV events, you’ll notice that favorites usually win, especially in preliminaries and early preliminary fights. At UFC 301, for example, only two underdogs won – Jose Aldo won in the co-main event, while Anthony Smith did it in the featured fight.

I think something similar might happen at UFC 302 as well.    

Of course, if you want to target an underdog, you may want to roll with my UFC 302 picks. Heading into UFC 301 I pegged Aldo as a fine underdog bet, after all.

Whether you want to aim high with underdogs or back huge favorites, make BetOnline your first choice for betting on UFC 302.

You know how and where to bet on UFC 302, so the only thing that’s left is to go to BetOnline and place your bets. I think there’s a lot of money to be made by backing underdogs in the main and co-main events. Sure, it’s risky but that’s the whole point of betting.

The one that stands out is Poirier. Some feel this could be a retirement fight, while he’s obviously chasing down a title belt. His 9-year old daughter watching on in the stands only adds incentive for him, too.

Still, if you prefer playing it safe, feel free to back some big favorites from the preliminary card – Grant Dawson, Ailin Perez, Bassil Hafez, etc. Just make sure you’re using the best UFC betting sites online, regardless of what fighters you’re betting on.

Want more big fights to wager on? You can always look ahead to UFC 303 and the big showdown between Conor McGregor and Michael Chandler. Of course, the UFC isn’t the only thing going. You can also bet on the biggest boxing fight of the year.

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