UFC 313 Odds and Picks

UFC 313 odds suggest the event at T-Mobile Arena in Vegas on Saturday, March 8, is going to be a real thriller. It’s a coin toss when it comes to who’s more likely to win the headliner bout – Alex Pereira or Magomed Ankalaev.

I also predict a real war in the Octagon in the co-main event as well, in which Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev fight for the second time.

The same should happen in many UFC 313 prelims as well – Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev, Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan, etc.

Odds for UFC 313

Being a pay-per-view event, odds for UFC 313 are available at practically all leading online sportsbooks. This includes BetOnline, whose odds you can see below.

It’s been a while since we last saw pick-em odds in the headliner of a UFC pay-per-view event. The favorite in the UFC 312 main event (Dricus du Plessis) was priced at -205. In the UFC 313 headliner fight, each fighter has -110 odds.

The UFC 313 odds are slightly more lopsided in other fights on the main card, while the biggest favorite of the entire evening is on the preliminary card – Carlos Leal (-775).

Excluding that fight, the UFC 313 odds are pretty good. This goes especially for some underdogs who I think are somewhat underestimated by the bookies – Justin Gaethje (+135) and Brunno Ferreira (+130).

Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev Main Event Preview

Alex Pereira’s UFC 313 odds are -110 at BetOnline, but some other UFC betting sites are giving -120, suggesting that he’s (slightly) more likely to win than Ankalaev.

If you’re wondering why is that the case, it’s because he’s the best kickboxer in the UFC. In fact, I consider him the best striker in the world.

Not only is he fast with his punches and leg kicks, landing 5.46 significant strikes a minute (for reference, Ankalaev lands 3.64), but his strikes are also incredibly powerful. The evidence of this is that his knockout-to-win ratio is 83.33%.

He’s already a superstar in the MMA universe, whom many think is on the road of becoming the GOAT. Does he have any weaknesses? I suspect he’s not the greatest wrestler.

This is something I can’t confirm because we haven’t seen him wrestle much in the Octagon. But he might be forced to do so on March 8.

The thing is that his opponent is from Dagestan and those guys start wrestling as soon as they leave the cradle. However, Ank did say he plans to beat Poatan at his own game, which I think is a risky road to take.

If the UFC 313 headliner turns into a striking match, Pereira will defend his title – that’s my prediction.

Best Bets for UFC 313

My top UFC 313 picks are two underdogs, Justin Gaethje and Brunno Ferreira. Gaethje has already defeated Fiziev once and I think he’ll do it again.

This happened two years ago, and a lot has happened since, most notably, Gaethje got put to sleep by Max Holloway. Actually, I’m pretty confident that’s the reason why Gaethje’s odds are +135 right now.

But they shouldn’t be. First of all, he’s had a full camp to prepare for UFC 313 as he was supposed to fight Dan Hooker. When the New Zealander got injured, Fiziev stepped in to save the day, with just a couple of weeks to prepare.

Add to that the fact that Fiziev hasn’t fought since suffering a knee injury in 2023 and you’ll see why I’m backing Gaethje.

If you’re wondering why I’m backing Brunno Ferreira to beat Armen Petrosyan, it’s because I think he’s a more lethal striker. This is almost certainly going to be a striking war, which I think the Brazilian will win – either by decision or a late stoppage.

Top UFC 313 Upset Pick

The mixed martial artist formerly known as Bobby Green is a veteran with 50 professional fights under his belt. His UFC 313 opponent has only 12 pro fights, with just two of those happening in the UFC.

Sure, Ruffy did win both of those, but now he’s fighting a much trickier opponent. King is a hell of a striker, who knows how to find room to land devastating strikes.

He also likes to play mind games to irritate his opponents, which could be his path to victory on March 8. Plus, Green is probably very motivated to get back on the winning track ASAP.

He’s coming off a loss to Paddy Pimblett, who beat him by submission last summer. Given that he’s already 38, he just cannot afford to lose again. This is why I expect him to go all-in on Saturday.

UFC 313 Predictions

Although I expect most favorites with minus-money UFC 313 odds to win on Saturday, I do expect to see some surprises. Gaethje and Ferreira look destined to stun online bookmakers, and I can even see King Green staging an upset.

In most other fights, I think favorites will win, although I would advise against putting too much money on some of them. For example, I’m not 100% confident Lucindo will beat Lemos, at least not easily.

I also fear Blaydes might struggle against Kuniev, who’s a fine wrestler with a nuclear option in his fists. Then there’s Leal, the man with the shortest UFC 313 odds – I just don’t think -775 is worth betting.

Betting on UFC 313

UFC 313 is a great event for betting, with plenty of exciting matchups all over the fight card. Obviously, the main event is the most exciting, but I’d stay away from it. Alex Pereira is an incredible striker, but what if Ank decides to take the fight to the ground?

Instead of betting on the main event, my advice is to put some money on the UFC 313 co-main event. I’m fairly confident that Justin Gaethje will beat Rafael Fiziev again.

He’s had a full camp (Fiziev hasn’t), he hasn’t had a big hiatus from fighting (Fiziev has), and he didn’t have to fly across the world to come to Vegas (Fiziev had).

For all these reasons, Gaethje is my top bet of the week. If you agree with me, head over to BetOnline and back the American fighter at +135 odds.