Betting Preview for UFC on ESPN 51 with Latest Odds and Expert Picks

The UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos odds are so close that it’s almost guaranteed we’re going to witness a spectacle at UFC Apex in Vegas on August 12. In the main event, each fighter is given negative odds, meaning that you got to bet over $100 for a chance to win $100.

It’s a similar case when it comes to the UFC on ESPN odds for most of the fights on the main card. When it comes to preliminaries, it’s a bit different.

There are some fighters whose UFC on ESPN 51 odds are in the ballpark of -300. This, however, doesn’t mean they’re certain to win. Actually, there are a couple of favorites I suspect might fail this coming Saturday.

To learn which fighters are those, as well as to see my top picks, and even learn where to bet on UFC Vegas 78, just keep on reading!

Even though there are many top-rated MMA betting sites that have released UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos odds, my decision was to use BetUS. The reason is that I like the odds this sportsbook is giving for the bets I’m planning to make.

Pretty much all the clear favorites come with decent prices, but it’s the underdog odds that I love. There are a couple of very good fighters who are giving odds way longer than I believe should be the case.

Then there’s the main event, in which the fighters are given very similar odds, which suggests that it’s really a coin toss when it comes to who’s gonna win. So, which side of the coin should you bet on – Vicente Luque or Rafael dos Anjos?

The UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos odds suggest that this is a contest in which anything can happen.

What I’m certain won’t happen is one fighter finishing the other one by submission. They’re both fantastic grapplers, but they’re mostly using their grappling skills for defensive purposes.

I’m not saying this without proof. The evidence of this is that Luque hasn’t lost a single fight by submission in over 10 years. When it comes to dos Anjos, it’s even more impressive – the 38-year-old is without a single submission loss in his professional career which started back in 2004.

Another impressive fact about dos Anjos is that he’s one of only six UFC fighters who didn’t get finished while fighting Khabib Nurmagomedov. If Khabib didn’t beat him by submission, Luque won’t either!

I don’t think the opposite will happen as well. Rather than trying to strangle his opponents – although he did that to Bryan Barberena in his most recent fight – dos Anjos prefers to take them down and control them for as long as possible.

His next opponent isn’t great in takedown defense, but he’s great at escaping opponents’ submission attempts. In the second fight against Belal Muhammad, for example, Luque got taken down five times but got back on his feet each time.

For all these reasons, I think “over 4.5 rounds” is the best bet you can make. The odds for this are +105 right now at BetOnline and SportsBetting sportsbooks.

Not bragging, but last week, all four of my best UFC bets won. I hope the same might happen on August 12, but this time, I’m gonna go with some riskier bets. What I’m saying is that I’m gonna back some underdogs with plus-money UFC Vegas 78 odds.

Top of the list is Chris Daukaus who’s a +170 underdog. The explanation to why his odds are so long is that he’s 0-3 in his last three fights. But those were heavyweight bouts against fighters with fists of steel – Derrick Lewis, Curtis Blaydes, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. This Saturday, Daukaus is making his debut in the 205lb division, and I think it’s going to be a successful one.

I also think Polyana Viana can upset the odds against Iasmin Lucindo. She’s a great finisher who’s coming off a brilliant KO win over Jing Yu Frey last November, which has certainly given her a massive morale boost.

Polyana Viana finishes Jinh Yu Frey in under a minute 😳 #UFCVegas64

(via @espnmma) pic.twitter.com/Wv7FFHMXyO

— MMAFighting.com (@MMAFighting) November 5, 2022

Still, the No. 1 reason why I think Viana will win is that her opponent lacks experience. Lucindo is only 21 and is 1-1 in the UFC. The win in question was a decision win over Brogan Walker who was 0-1 in this promotion at the time.

JP Buys is another fighter with 0-3 in his last three fights who I think might win on Saturday. This guy really needs it as been through a lot lately. Not only has his UFC journey started badly, but the DWCS alumnus went through a messy divorce last year with his now ex-wife reportedly leaving him for another UFC fighter.

In 2023, however, Buys looks ready to record his first-ever UFC win. For that, he’ll need to outsmart Marcus McGhee whose nickname “The Maniac” is more than suitable as this guy always goes for a finish. He’s got a 100% finish rate but is somewhat reckless, which is what I think Buys will take advantage of.

Pretty much every expert UFC betting guide promotes backing favorites, which is what I agree with, although not in every case.

In the case of UFC Vegas 78, I think you should back a couple of underdogs. Chris Daukaus, Polyana Viana, and JP Buys are my top longshots, with Luque also looking like a decent bet (although you can’t call him a longshot).

For all the other fights on the UFC on ESPN 51 fight card, I say back the favorites. Josh Parisian, Josh Fremd, and Terrance McKinney are what you may call sure bets. Their UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos odds aren’t too attractive, but these guys seem almost 100% certain to win on Saturday.

One final piece of advice I have for you is to install a betting app on your phone. This way, wherever you might be, you’ll be able to bet on this event live. The reason why you want to do this is because UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos odds might change (in your favor).

Let’s take the main event as an example. If dos Anjos exacts a takedown – which he almost certainly will – his odds are going to shorten. However, this is a 25-minute fight, so anything can happen before the end. You need to exploit moving lines at live betting sites by backing his opponent to win the fight.

Regardless, this is a pretty underrated UFC fight card. Hopefully my preview gives you some solid insight and helps you place some winning bets. Good luck!

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