NFL Betting Strategies for a Successful Football Season

9 Parts of a Winning NFL Betting Strategy

For your best shot at making a profit the next time players hit the field, build your NFL betting strategy using these nine tips as your foundation. 

1. Bet With Your Head, Not with Your Heart

It can be tough not to back your favorite team, but loyalty doesn’t influence game outcomes. Sometimes, your heart might scream your colors, but the stats, injuries, and odds might all point toward the others.

Take a minute to think and do some proper research before placing any wagers. If you can’t, it might be better to skip the bet instead of draining your budget.

2. Know The Different Bet Types

Understanding what each market involves can help you make more informed decisions, spot value, and minimize risks. Here are some of the most popular NFL markets you should know:

3. Understand the Odds

The main way that sportsbooks turn a profit is through a cut or commission built into the odds called the vigorish or vig. Think of it like betting on a coin toss with a 50/50 chance of winning. Without anyone taking a cut, you’d win back even money. For example, betting $100 and winning would get you $100.

When it comes to online betting, sportsbooks adjust these figures so they can make a profit. Instead of offering even odds, they might list both heads and tails at -110. Now, you have to bet $110 to win $100, with the implied probability of each outcome being roughly 52.38%. Adding them together would give you a total of 104.76%. That extra 4.76% (over the 100) is the sportsbook’s edge.

Why is this Important for You?

Calculating vig is crucial for spotting where online betting sites consistently charge a higher percentage. This allows you to place bets where the cost is lower, ensuring each bet has better value.

Here’s how you can calculate vig for yourself (put in card box):

VIG = 1 – [(1 / Odds for Outcome A) + (1 / Odds for Outcome B)] + […]

For example, if a sportsbook offers odds of 1.95 for Heads and 1.95 for Tails:

• For Heads: 1 / 1.95 = 0.51282051282
• For Tails: 1 / 1.95 = 0.51282051282

Sum the probabilities: 0.51282051282 + 0.51282051282 = 1.02564102564

VIG = 1 – 1.02564102564 ≈ -0.026 or 2.6% vig (end card box)

Understanding the vig is also crucial for avoiding the pitfall of winning only half your bets and thinking you’re doing well. In reality, you’d be losing money over time.

4. Manage Your Money

Bankroll management is vital to saving your money when placing bets at online sportsbooks. Set yourself a budget and only bet what you can afford to lose. Keep your wallet safe and boost your chances of making money during the NFL season. 

Try splitting your bankroll into units to keep your betting amounts in check. For example, 1% of a $2,000 bankroll means you only bet $20 per wager. If you have a strong hunch about a specific bet, you can pump up your bet to two or three units. If not, stick to the 1%.

However, no matter how strong your belief in the outcome, don’t let the adrenaline tempt you to throw over 5% of your bankroll on a single bet. That’s how you keep yourself in the game for the long haul.

5. Research and Handicapping Are Your Friends

Back your NFL football betting decisions with solid research. Resources like ESPN and NFL.com have the latest stats, historical performances, and head-to-head records. 

If you want to dive deeper, check out Pro Football Focus for detailed player grades and matchup info. You can also hit up ATS data sites like Team Rankings for historical against the spread information.

Meanwhile, BetUS’ NFL Show offers invaluable insights from experts like Jared Smith, Las Vegas Cris, and Steve Fezzik. Reddit’s r/sportsbook also features useful discussions on what’s hot among the betting community.

As you’re gathering your intel, here are some key things to focus on:

• Stay informed about recent NFL trends, such as scoring patterns or defensive strengths, that can influence game outcomes.
• Monitor how betting lines shift during the week to catch insights on where the smart money might go.
• Consider the home-field advantage. Teams often perform better on their own turf.
• Always check the latest injury reports since the absence of key players can significantly impact a game’s result.
• Look at the playing surface; some teams may perform better on natural grass, while others excel on artificial turf.
• The whole thing changes when teams are playing their rivals. Always give special attention to divisional matchups.
• Note that teams playing on Thursday night may have extra rest if they played the previous Sunday.
• Teams coming off a bye week have had extra time to rest and prepare, possibly giving them an edge.
• Consider the effect of travel distance and time zones on visiting teams, which can lead to fatigue.
• Always check the weather forecast on game day. Wind, rain, or snow can mess with ball handling, passing accuracy, and kicking distance. It can also affect running plays by changing the field’s traction.

6. Be Careful with Value Traps

A +1200 wager certainly offers a fantastic payout, but maybe stop and ask yourself a few questions before placing your bet. Why are these odds so high? Bookmakers have plenty of data at their disposal. What do they know that you might be overlooking?

For example, consider whether an underdog’s recent games prove they have potential the public might be missing. They may have performed better than expected against top teams or gotten some key players back from injury.

If the overvalued odds are on the favorites, consider their conditions. They may have had a streak of easy wins or are prone to underperforming in the specific conditions expected on game day.

If your research backs up the high-value odds, consider investing a unit or even half of one. However, if your data or gut instinct tells you that the high odds are due to an unlikely outcome, it’s wise to skip it. 

7. Shop Lines at Several Sportsbooks

One of the most popular NFL betting strategies is to sign up for multiple sportsbooks so you can compare the odds and shop for the best lines. By watching the movements before games and looking for differences in point spreads and totals, you can see where the smart money is going. 

One way to take advantage of major discrepancies is through arbitrage betting. This tactic involves betting on both sides of a market when they offer odds that guarantee a profit, regardless of the outcome. For example, if one site has Team A at +110 and another has Team B at +110, a bet on both will ensure a return, no matter who wins.

Perhaps the top NFL betting site for shopping lines is Bovada, where you can currently access a sports+casino bonus for up to $3,750 in additional funds.

8. Beware of Betting Systems

Betting systems are a popular way to add a structured approach to sports betting. There are several rules and patterns you can follow. For example, the Martingale involves increasing your bet after a loss. Meanwhile, the Paroli System takes a more progressive approach.

Betting systems can make wagering more disciplined. However, it’s crucial to remember that they cannot increase your overall chances of winning. No betting system can change the fundamental odds of the game. They also can’t predict the numerous variables affecting the game’s outcome, like sudden injuries or bad weather.

You can also use betting systems to help you stay organized and prevent reckless betting. However, these systems can also become a trap if they lead you to chase your losses. For instance, if you’re doubling your bet after each defeat, a bad streak could deplete your bankroll quickly. Also, NFL sportsbooks often impose limits on bets, which could force you to abandon the system midway and leave you in a very tough spot financially.

9. Use Bonuses When They Make Sense

Most sportsbooks offer some kind of sports betting promotion, such as sign-up bonuses, reload offers, and cashback. Whether you claim these bonuses or not depends on the specific conditions of each offer.

The most crucial factor to consider is the wagering requirement. This refers to the number of times you need to roll over your bonus before you can withdraw any winnings. A 5x rollover is standard. Anything over that may require a pause unless it comes with something tempting, like a massive percentage boost or a no-deposit free bet. Also, look at the validity period you’re given to meet the rollover and the minimum odds required for bets to qualify. These play a significant role in how you leverage the promotion.

It’s also wise to consider the timing of accepting certain promotions. For instance, if you have a strong hunch about the outcome of a big game coming up, a matching deposit bonus can give you more to bet with. On the other hand, if you’re planning to bet on an underdog, look for a good cashback deal to cushion any potential losses. 

The Best NFL Betting Strategies for Every Bet

There are many ways you can bet on the NFL. Pre-match moneylines set the standard. You can also explore totals, parlays, in-play options, and more. Let’s look at a few expert football betting strategies for different scenarios:

Moneyline Betting Strategies

The moneyline is the simplest type of bet, where you wager on which NFL team will win a game. The key to betting on the moneyline is first to get a handle on what the odds on the screen mean before putting down any money.   

Moneyline odds are presented with a plus or minus sign. A minus (-) indicates the favorite, and the number tells you how much you must bet to win $100. If the odds are -150, you must bet $150 to win $100. 

Meanwhile, the plus (+) shows who’s the underdog and denotes how much you’d win if you bet $100. So, +180 means if you bet $100, you’ll win $180.

Moneyline betting is all about looking for value in these numbers and finding bets where you think the payout outweighs the risk. You should also pay close attention to the context of the match. For example, a high-stakes game can significantly affect performance. Consider if it’s a must-win for one team and how these teams usually perform under pressure or in certain environments. 

Once you’re confident about your pick, decide when to lock in your wager. Sometimes, placing your bet early can lock in better value before the odds shift. Meanwhile, waiting closer to game time can benefit you if new information comes out.

Over/Under Betting Strategies

The goal of over/under betting (also called totals) is to predict whether the total score of both teams will be over or under a set number determined by the sportsbook. It doesn’t matter who wins.

The first thing you must do is examine both teams’ recent matches to see their scoring trends. Do they consistently hit above or below their projected totals? Be careful not to pay too much attention to extremes. Teams often regress to the mean after very high- or low-scoring games.

Then, review them head-to-head and see if you spot any patterns. Some games are high-scoring due to clashing play styles. Meanwhile, others might consistently end in low-scoring affairs due to complementary defensive strategies.

Another good strategy for over/under betting is not to overlook the game’s context—weather, injuries, and venue changes. For instance, rain alone could reduce passing production by about 12%.

Halftime Betting Strategies

Halftime is when the players hit the locker room for a breather, but for you, it’s crunch time. You’ve got about 13 minutes to analyze and strategize. Ask yourself the following questions:

• How did the scoring in the first half compare to pregame expectations?
• Were there any significant injuries in the first half that could impact team performance in the second half?
• Did you observe any possession and territory control?
• Did weather conditions seem to affect the first half? Do you anticipate any changes?
• How have penalties affected the game’s flow?
• Was there a noticeable momentum shift towards the end of the first half?
• Has the scoring been consistent or fluctuating?
• Are there any players who are underperforming?

While the above applies to live betting, you can also target halftime betting markets dealing with game and player props. Basically, you’re getting the same exact bets for a full game, but they are truncated to the point where your bet is over after the first or second half ends.

How can you take advantage of this? Well, if you think a team will lose, but should be competitive early, you could bet on an underdog to beat the first half spread. You can apply this logic to all other “half bets”, and even apply it to “quarter betting” as well.

Parlay Betting Strategies

Parlays offer tempting payouts due to their higher odds, but the bigger risk can ward people off. This type of wager combines several bets into one. Every single leg must come for the ticket to pay out.

Placing parlays can be more rewarding at sportsbooks that offer insurance promotions. Let’s say a sportsbook sets the number at 4+. If you place a bet with four legs or more and only one of them fails, you get your stake back either as cash or a free bet.

You can also use parlays as a hedging tool (more on this below). For example, instead of dedicating three units to a particular game, you only lay two, with the remaining unit going into a parlay. The latter can include the opposing outcome of your primary wager and two or three other selections you feel confident about.

Another interesting approach is building parlays made of selections from the same NFL match, called a same-game play. Sportsbooks like BetOnline and BetUS give you an interface to choose different picks into a single ticket. The safest way to do this is with correlated outcomes. If you predict a high-scoring match and pick the Over on a totals bet, you might also bet on a prolific quarterback to exceed his expected passing yards.

Live Betting Strategies  

Betting on live NFL matches is a whole different ballgame. Markets get suspended, reopened, and odds shift in real time as things happen on the field, so you need to move fast. As the adrenaline kicks in, keep the following six tips in mind to stay in control:

• Watch for Momentum Shifts: Momentum can swing quickly in NFL games, often following turnovers or big plays. Let’s say the home team recovers a fumble and scores quickly. In that case, consider betting on them while the odds still favor their opponent to capitalize on the shift in momentum. 
• Adjust for Fast Starts or Slow Starts: If a slow-starting team concedes early, they can still come back later, giving them betting value as the game progresses. 
• Use Time Decay: Odds change as the clock runs down. If you expect a comeback late in the game, the odds for the trailing team will offer better value. For example, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a history of strong comebacks. So, betting on them to cover the spread when they’re down by two touchdowns in the third quarter could be lucrative. 
• Observe Changes in Playing Conditions: Weather can change suddenly. Rain can cause a game expected to be high-scoring to see dropped passes and fumbles. That can make betting the under on the total score advantageous. 
• Capitalizing on Live Stat Trends: Keep an eye on stats like rushing yards or passing efficiency as the game progresses. Suppose the San Francisco 49ers are accumulating rushing yards above their season average early in the game. In that case, it might be a good indicator to bet on them to continue dominating on the ground.
• React to Defensive and Offensive Adjustments: Teams adjust their strategies based on the game flow. If a defense blitzes more and halts the opposing offense, you might bet on lower scores for the following quarters.

Underdog Betting Strategies

Betting on NFL underdogs can be profitable once you know when to take the risk. Here are a few common scenarios and how to approach them:

Advanced NFL Betting Strategies to Up Your Game

Ready to play in the big leagues? Here are three of the best NFL betting strategies for the seasoned gambler:

Hedge Your Bets

Hedging your bets involves betting on opposing outcomes to ensure you win a profit, no matter what happens. This strategy is great for parlays or futures that are close to paying off but are still uncertain.

Let’s say you bet $100 on the Miami Dolphins to win the Super Bowl at 50-1 odds at the beginning of the season. They make it to the finals, where they’re up against the Dallas Cowboys.

• Potential Returns (Dolphins Win): $5,100 ($100 stake + $5,000 profit)

To hedge, you decide to place a $1,500 bet on the Cowboys at 3-1.

• Potential Returns (Cowboys Win Hedge Bet): $4,500 ($1,500 stake + $3,000 profit)

Whatever happens, you’ll end up winning money.

Fading the Public

Sportsbooks set their odds based on more than just what’s likely to happen in the game. They also want to balance their books, meaning they adjust prices based on where the money is flowing. This can open up valuable opportunities if you believe the public is wrong.  

The trick is to figure out if the public bias is driven more by popularity or solid reasoning. It’s not straightforward, but we suggest considering the following:  

• Recent Performances: Check if team wins are convincingly strong or just close calls.
• Media Influence: Note heavy media coverage or hype around a team or player.
• Historical Reputation: Compare the team’s historical success to current season stats.
• Key Player Status: Investigate star players’ current performance and health.
• Matchup Dynamics: Analyze tactical matchups and performance against similar teams.
• Line Movements: Watch for odds changes that aren’t linked to new or critical information.

Middling

Middling is a betting strategy that plays on the variations in betting lines. Earlier in the week, you might place a bet on one team using the initial point spread. Say you bet on the Giants (-3.5) at -110. Then, as bets pour in and sportsbooks adjust to balance the action, the spread might shift to the Giants at -4.5. At this point, you can place a second bet on the Cowboys (4.5) at -110.

Scenario 1: Giants 24-20 Cowboys

Margin of Victory: Giants win by 4 points.
Bet Results:
Giants -3.5 Bet: Wins $90.91 (Giants won by more than 3.5 points).Cowboys +4.5 Bet: Wins $90.91 (Cowboys lost by less than 4.5 points).
You win both bets and get back $381.82 ($181.82 profit). This is the ideal “middle” where you maximize your returns.

Scenario 2: Giants 28-20 Cowboys

Margin of Victory: Giants win by 5 points or more.
Bet Results:
Giants -3.5 Bet: Wins $90.91 (Giants won by more than 3.5 points).Cowboys +4.5 Bet: Loses (Cowboys lost by more than 4.5 points).
You win one bet (Giants -3.5) and lose the other (Cowboys +4.5), getting back $190.91 (Lost $9.09)

Scenario 3: Giants 23-20 Cowboys, or Cowboys 24-21 Giants

Margin of Victory: Giants win by 3 points or fewer, or Cowboys win
Bet Results:
Giants -3.5 Bet: Loses (Giants didn’t cover the -3.5 spread).Cowboys +4.5 Bet: Wins $90.91 (Cowboys lost by less than 4.5 points or won the game).
You win one bet (Cowboys +4.5) and lose the other (Giants -3.5), getting back $190.91 (Lost $9.09)

If the game’s outcome falls into that specific “middle” range, you stand to make a significant profit. If not (one win + one loss), you effectively break even on the amounts wagered but lose the vigorish (the bookmaker’s commission) on the losing bet.

Additional NFL Betting Strategies from Reddit

Reddit is a goldmine for NFL betting tips, but it can be a mess, too. It all depends on how you navigate it.

Subreddits like r/sportsbook, r/NFLBETS, and r/NFLbettingPicks feature insights from both amateur and experienced bettors. However, while it can be interesting to discover different betting styles and ideas, these are still unproven. Have fun trying out other people’s plans, but proceed with caution.

You can also take a step back by applying these Reddit-shared strategies to last week’s games to see if they would’ve worked. In any case, do your homework before placing any bets based on what you read. 

Apply These NFL Betting Strategies to Help You Win More

You’re now ready to try putting some of these NFL betting strategies into play. Success starts with laying the groundwork. Sites like ESPN, NFL.com, and BetUS’s daily NFL show can help you research how the odds work with different betting options.

Proper bankroll management is also crucial. Stick to your budget, and only wager a set unit of your total bankroll per bet. You can also try more advanced strategies, like hedging or middling.

The sportsbook you pick matters, too. BetUS and Bovada provide superb insights and also offer advantageous betting promotions and bonuses. Everygame offers plenty of parlay options, while MyBookie has many NFL contests to mix up your betting style.

Once you’ve made your choice, set up an account, claim that welcome bonus, place your bets, and kick back to watch the action unfold! 

Charlon

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Content Specialist

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All the way from the renowned iGaming hub of Malta, Charlon has been contributing to the gambling industry since 2019. He began his career at Paddy Power™, but the onset of the pandemic led him to swap his nine-to-five for a life of full-time travel.

Throughout his journey, Charlon developed a successful freelance career, leveraging his prior industry knowledge and focusing on analyzing online casinos, sportsbooks, slots, payment methods, and current trends and strategies through the lens of an actual player.

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