Football Betting Strategy Guide

Top Football Betting Strategies: How to Bet on Football and Win 

Although no NFL betting strategy can guarantee success on every wager, the following five tips should provide a solid foundation for a more profitable experience.

Bankroll Management

Bankroll is just a fancy way of saying the money you’ve tucked away for betting. Make sure it’s an amount you can handle losing—never use what you need for essentials like rent or groceries. Once you’ve figured that out, the next step is to manage it smartly. You want to keep your wallet safe and boost your chances of making some money during the NFL season.

Here’s our advice: split your bankroll into units. The idea here is to keep your betting amounts in check. Say you’ve got $2,000 set aside. If 1% is a unit, then you’re looking at $20 bets.

While you’re placing bets, not every selection is going to feel the same in terms of your belief in the outcome, and that’s totally fine. When you really have a strong hunch, maybe pump up your bet to two or three units. If not, stick to the 1%. 

Another golden rule is to never, ever let the adrenaline tempt you to throw more than 5% of your bankroll on a single bet. That’s how you keep yourself in the game for the long haul.

Understand the Different Football Bet Types

Knowing what each market involves can help you make more informed decisions, spot value, and minimize risks. Here are some of the most popular you should know:

If you encounter anything that you’re not familiar with, the immediate step is to pause and look it up. Most sportsbooks offer detailed explanations for each type of bet they offer. You can usually find this info in the help or FAQ sections of their website. Alternatively, you can reach out to live chat (when available) or do a quick search online for a more detailed breakdown of what that market involves.

NFL Parlay Betting Strategy

Parlays are often advised against because they combine multiple bets into one. As every single leg must win for parlays to pay out, they are far riskier than other markets. However, there are situations where constructing a parlay can make strategic sense.

• Some sportsbooks offer promotions that make parlays more attractive. Everygame’s a great example; they have a 4+ parlay insurance in place where you get back your money if only one leg fails.

• You can also use parlays as a hedging tool (more on this below). For example, instead of dedicating three units to a particular game, you only lay two, with the remaining unit going into a parlay. The latter can include the opposing outcome of your main wager, along with two or three other selections you feel confident about.

• Football betting sites like BetUS offer the opportunity to build same-game parlays; these allow you to combine multiple bets from a single match into one wager. The safest way to go here is with correlated outcomes—if you predict a high-scoring match and pick the Over on a totals bet, you might also bet on a prolific quarterback to exceed his expected passing yards.

Back Your Bets with Research

Don’t let team loyalty guide your football betting strategy. Instead, ground your decisions in solid research. Start by analyzing current season stats, historical performances, and head-to-head records available on sports databases like ESPN or NFL.com.

Dive deeper with advanced analytics from sites like Pro Football Focus, which provide in-depth player grades and matchup insights. Check weather reports for game day conditions that could impact play, especially for totals bets. BetUS’ The NFL Show is another excellent resource, hosted by well-known experts like Jared Smith, Las Vegas Cris, and Steve Fezzik.

Additionally, forums like Reddit’s r/sportsbook offer community insights and discussions that can uncover valuable betting trends. 

Shop for the Best Lines

One of the top strategies in football betting is to have active accounts with multiple sportsbooks. This allows you to compare the odds they offer for the same events and shop for the best lines.

Always watch the movements before games, as these can indicate where the smart money is going. Be alert to differences in point spreads and totals that can provide an edge.

If you see major discrepancies, you might want to consider arbitrage betting. This entails wagering on both sides of a market at different sportsbooks when they offer odds that guarantee a profit, regardless of the outcome. For example, if one site has Team A at +110 and another has Team B at +110, a bet on both will ensure a return no matter who wins.

Advanced NFL Betting Strategies 

Ready to play in the big leagues? Here are three of the best NFL betting strategies for the seasoned gambler:

Hedge Betting

Hedge betting is a strategy used to reduce risk and secure profits by placing bets on opposing outcomes of the same event. This approach is particularly valuable in scenarios where you have a parlay or a future bet that’s close to paying off but still faces uncertainty. 

Imagine you put down $100 at the start of the season on a long-shot team to win the Super Bowl, with odds standing at +2000. This means your potential win could be $2,000 if they clinch the title. Now, fast forward to the finals, and your underdog team is there. 

To hedge, you could bet on their opponent; if the opponent’s odds are -150, you would need to wager approximately $1,200 to win $800.

This setup ensures a profit no matter the outcome: if your original team triumphs, your profit is $800 (that’s the $2,000 win minus your $1,200 safety bet). Alternatively, if the opposing team wins, your profit still lands at $800 (because you get $1,200 back from the hedge, less the $400 total you bet initially).

Fading the Public

This football betting approach is based on the assumption that the public often overvalues favorites or popular teams, leading to skewed odds that offer value on the opposite side.

Sportsbooks set initial lines but will adjust them based on where the majority of the money is going in order to balance their books and minimize risk. This can create favorable conditions for sharp bettors who believe public sentiment has overly influenced the line.

But how would you know if the public bias is driven more by popularity than solid reasoning? It’s not straightforward, but we suggest considering the following:

• Recent Performances: Check if team wins are convincingly strong or just close calls.
• Media Influence: Note heavy media coverage or hype around a team or player.
• Historical Reputation: Compare the team’s historical success to current season stats.
• Key Player Status: Investigate the current performance and health of star players.
• Matchup Dynamics: Analyze tactical matchups and performance against similar teams.
• Line Movements: Watch for odds changes that aren’t linked to new or critical information.

Middling

Consider an NFL game where the Dallas Cowboys are set to play the Green Bay Packers. Early in the week, you see that the Cowboys are favored by 4.5 points. Believing that this spread might shift, you place a bet on the Packers at +4.5.

As the game approaches, suppose there’s significant news—maybe an injury update or a change in the expected line-up—that influences the betting lines, and the spread adjusts so that the Cowboys are now only 3.5-point favorites.

You seize this opportunity and place another bet, this time on the Cowboys at -3.5. This is what’s known as Middling—a strategic approach where you bet on both teams at different spreads, hoping the final score lands in a narrow range that allows both bets to win.

Tips on NFL Betting

Regardless of your chosen football betting strategy, take the following tips into account as you pick your selections. Further down, you’ll find specific advice on wagering on NFL spreads as well as live betting. 

Factor in Coaching Strategies: Coaches play a crucial role in how games are played. If a team with a new coach is playing, research their previous coaching style and results, like when Coach Matt LaFleur took over the Green Bay Packers and led them to a 13-3 record in his first season.

Analyze Team Schedules: Fatigue matters. A team on a three-game road stretch could perform below their usual level by the third game, especially if facing a well-rested team.

Pay Attention to Player Matchups: Individual matchups, such as a top receiver going against a weaker cornerback, can significantly impact the game’s outcome.

Check Team Motivation: Late in the season, some teams might be playing for playoff spots while others are out of contention. Those with something to play for often perform better against teams with nothing at stake.

Avoid Heavy Favorites: The NFL is unpredictable, and upsets are common. Instead of heavy favorites, look for value bets where the outcome might be more uncertain, but the potential payout is higher.

Tips for Betting on the NFL Spread

Analyze Home Field Advantage: Not all home fields offer the same edge. For example, Denver’s Mile High Stadium sits at a high altitude, challenging visiting teams who aren’t used to the thinner air. This can be a critical factor when considering the Broncos at home.

Weather Impact: Matchups affected by snow or rain might level the playing field, which is particularly beneficial for teams like the Tennessee Titans who excel in the running game. This can tip the scales when they face a team that primarily relies on aerial attacks.

Strategic Wagering on Scores: Familiarize yourself with the most frequent scores in the league—three and seven points are common. Betting lines such as -2.5 or +3.5 can offer an advantage. A -2.5 bet on the favorite means a simple field goal win secures a win, while +3.5 provides a cushion in a narrow loss.

Track Betting Line Changes: Keep an eye on last-minute changes in betting lines. For instance, if you notice the spread for a game like the Cowboys versus the Giants shifts from -3 to -4.5 without any public news, this might hint at knowledgeable insiders placing significant bets.

Assessing Team Dynamics: Always consider how well teams match up. A strong defensive line like that of the Philadelphia Eagles can make a big difference when they face a team known for its weaker offensive line protection.

NFL Live Betting Tips

Watch for Momentum Shifts: Momentum can swing quickly in NFL games, often following turnovers or big plays. For example, if the home team recovers a fumble and scores quickly, consider placing a bet on them if the odds still favor their opponent to capitalize on the shift in momentum.

Adjust for Fast Starts or Slow Starts: If a typically slow-starting team concedes early, they may still come back later, providing value on betting on them as the game progresses.

Utilize Time Decay: Odds change as the clock runs down. If you anticipate a comeback late in the game, odds for the trailing team will offer better value. For instance, betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover the spread when they’re down by two touchdowns in the third quarter could be lucrative, as they have a history of strong comebacks.

Observe Changes in Playing Conditions: Weather can change suddenly. If rain begins and a game expected to be high-scoring starts to see dropped passes and fumbles, betting the under on the total score could be advantageous.

Capitalizing on Live Stat Trends: Keep an eye on stats like rushing yards or passing efficiency as the game progresses. Suppose the San Francisco 49ers are accumulating rushing yards above their season average early in the game. In that case, it might be a good indicator to bet on them to continue dominating on the ground.

React to Defensive and Offensive Adjustments: Teams adjust their strategies based on the game flow. If a defense starts blitzing more frequently and successfully halting the opposing offense, you might bet on lower scores for the following quarters.

Charlon Muscat

All the way from the renowned iGaming hub of Malta, Charlon has been contributing to the gambling industry since 2019. He began his career at Paddy Power™, but the onset of the pandemic led him to swap his nine-to-five for a life of full-time travel.

Throughout his journey, Charlon developed a successful freelance career, leveraging his prior industry knowledge and focusing on analyzing online casinos, sportsbooks, slots, payment methods, and current trends and strategies through the lens of an actual player.

More Posts by Charlon